The Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) has experienced a significant decrease in student enrollment, ranking as the second-largest drop in California in recent years, according to data presented by The 74, an education news outlet.
LAUSD’s enrollment nosedived from 639,337 students in the 2015–16 academic year to just 538,295 in the 2022–23 year, representing a staggering loss of nearly 100,000 students or a roughly 16 percent decline.
Surprisingly, this downturn is only second to the San Jose Unified School District in northern California, which reported an 18.4 percent drop during the same period.
As per official records from last year, LAUSD‘s enrollment has consistently dwindled by about 2.8 percent each year since its 2002 zenith when 737,000 students were on its rolls. Furthermore, projections indicate that this downward trend will accelerate to 3.6 percent annually, anticipating only 309,000 students by 2031—a 30 percent drop over the upcoming decade.
In search of reasons behind this exodus, David Hart, Los Angeles Unified’s Chief Financial Officer, hinted at the rising prominence of charter schools within the district’s boundaries as a potential factor.
To put this in perspective, there are now over 270 active charter schools operating in LAUSD, educating a collective of more than 112,000 students. These institutions, although government-funded, function independently, offering an alternative to traditional public education.
Notably, charter school enrollment within the district has been on an upward trajectory, growing about 1 percent annually since 2018, according to state education database, EdData.
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University of Southern California education associate professor, Morgan Polikoff, concurred with this sentiment, stating to The 74, “Enrollment declines in [Los Angeles Unified] can be attributed to people enrolling in charter schools, which [the district] is one of the top largest charter sectors in the nation.”
Additionally, Polikoff identified another critical factor — the exodus of families from California, driven out by the prohibitive cost of living.
This assertion is backed by data from the California Department of Finance, revealing a 0.4 percent population drop from January 2022 to January 2023, with the city of Los Angeles alone losing almost 37,000 residents in just one year.
Such a dramatic loss in student numbers spells potential financial strife for the district, as Mr. Polikoff stated: “Every state has a different average daily attendance, so fewer seats in attendance on top of fewer kids enrolled can greatly decrease the support and funds of districts. Having less funding can affect the overall structure of districts since it covers operating buildings, hiring teachers, labor costs, and programs.”
For context, even a mere 1 percent enrollment decline translates into a $55 million funding deficit for the 2023–24 academic year, as per district estimates.
Facing these stark realities and with an $18.8 billion budget for the current school year, Superintendent Alberto Carvalho has begun restructuring efforts to ensure the district remains operational, even with diminished funds and the cessation of federal pandemic aid.
Over the next two years, the district has committed $4.2 billion—largely sourced from one-off COVID-19 relief funds—to prioritize smaller class sizes, bolster social work and counseling departments, facilitate professional development, and adjust employee compensation, as outlined in a June district statement.
Regarding future financial planning, while the budget for the 2024–25 school year is still in the works, district projections hint at a drastic reduction in unassigned funds, dropping from $113.7 million by the end of this year to a mere $10.6 million by 2026–27.
Superintendent Carvalho, ever since his office tenure began in February 2022, has consistently sounded the alarm about the impending fiscal challenges once pandemic relief monies are exhausted.
Emphasizing fiscal prudence, he stated in June, “This year’s budget is responsible and values-based, enabling Los Angeles Unified to fund and support the critical priorities of this board, even as one-time federal funding sunsets and the state grapples with a massive shortfall of revenue.”
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The pandemic was a stark reality check for parents they, and their children, were all working from home. It is not surprising that charter schools have increased in attendance. This should really be a wake-up call for public schools across the country. Shape up or get left behind.
