Bud Light finds itself on rocky ground, its market share permanently threatened by consistently dropping sales.

This potential upheaval has been flagged by a former Anheuser-Busch executive who warned that major retailers may replace the beer on their shelves with more successful competitors.

Bud Light’s sales have nosedived by about a quarter compared to last year in recent weeks. The nosedive is believed to be due to a conservative backlash resulting from a questionable April marketing campaign featuring transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.

Anson Frericks, the former US president of sales and distribution for St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch, shed light on the potential long-term implications of these slowing sales.

He revealed how retailers like Walmart and Kroger have a biannual ‘reset’ of their shelf space allocations, informed by sales data.

Frericks explained to DailyMail.com over a phone interview, ‘For the fall reset in September, they generally take sales data from April, May, June, July, and then based off of that data in that time period, they will reallocate shelf space.’

Should Bud Light’s slump continue, Frericks contends, the brand faces the real possibility of losing shelf space to its competitors. ‘Those brands will have a better likelihood to succeed longer term, because they have more shelf space, they have more inventory, they have more back-stock, and they have more availability for consumers,’ he argued.

Frericks added that the ‘vast majority’ of beer sales, some 80 to 90 percent, take place at traditional retail outlets rather than bars and restaurants. This makes the shelf space matter more pressing.

The former Anheuser-Busch executive, who co-founded Strive Asset Management after leaving his old position, didn’t mince his words when criticizing his former employer’s handling of the Mulvaney backlash.

He urged, ‘Anheuser-Bush needs to figure out a strategy, it needs to make a statement about who their customers are and who they’re going to serve now, and try and regain those customers now in June and July, because by time it’s August, September, it’s too late.’

Yet, Bump Williams, a seasoned analyst in the alcohol industry, expressed doubts about Bud Light’s imminent displacement from retailers’ shelves. Despite recent setbacks, Bud Light is the nation’s top-selling beer in 2023 year-to-date sales, though its weekly performance has at times fallen behind Modelo Especial.

Williams commented in an email to DailyMail.com, ‘Bud Light COULD lose shelf space based upon lost sales, but I’d be hard pressed to believe that retailers would reduce shelf space on the #1 selling brand in the country today on a YTD basis.’

Williams added, ‘If at the end of 2023 we find that Bud Light dropped to the #2 selling brand, they’ll more than likely maintain their fair share of space.’

For the week ending May 20, Bud Light’s sales dipped 25.7 percent compared to the same week last year, while Modelo Especial saw a 9.2 percent increase in sales.

Williams, whose firm compiled these figures, pointed out, ‘While Bud Light loses week after week, Modelo Especial gains week after week and now Modelo outsells Bud Light on a national basis across all trade channels combined.’

Modelo Especial was the number two beer in the US last year, with off-premises sales reaching $3.8 billion compared to Bud Light’s $4.8 billion.

However, under an anti-trust settlement, US sales of Modelo are controlled by Constellation Group and do not contribute to AB InBev’s global volumes.

Despite these market shifts, Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO Michel Doukeris downplayed the impact of the backlash on Bud Light, stating the beer’s US sales declines in the first three weeks of April only accounted for 1 percent of InBev’s global volumes. ‘We believe we have the experience, the resources and the partners to manage this,’ Doukeris reassured investors in a recent conference call.

Anheuser-Busch is now left to grapple with the aftermath of the controversial Mulvaney promotion.

Not only has it led to a conservative backlash, but also a counter-backlash from pro-LGBTQ groups accusing the company of abandoning the transgender influencer.

This situation serves as a potent reminder to all businesses that understanding one’s customer base is integral to maintaining, if not increasing, market share.

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