Should I rent that empty store on Main Street and open a used book shop?

Should I teach my 7-year-old at home or send him to public school?

Should I take the higher-paying software sales job in Tulsa or stick to what I know in Baltimore?

Life is a parade of such questions and choices. Most everyday options—hamburger versus chicken at the grocery store, white blouse or blue for work—are simple enough, but the complicated ones, the game-changers, can be stressful, even terrifying. When big decisions loom, we peer into the future, trying to discern all possible outcomes, good and bad, but usually that crystal ball is cloudy, often because our thoughts are muddled.

But what if we quit playing the fortune-teller and became detectives instead?

To find culprits involved in a crime, our police and our courts use the three-legged stool of means, motive, and opportunity. With one leg missing, the stool topples over. But if the stool stands upright on three legs, then it’s case closed.

We can use these same three tools to investigate and more accurately determine the outcomes of future possibilities.

Let’s take that bookstore question above as our example, a situation with which I’ve had some experience. Also, to approach the problem more logically, let’s change the order of our formula to motive, opportunity, and means (MOM).

So, should you rent the space and set up shop?

To help you decide, you open your investigation.

Motive.  You love books, you’re widely read, and for years you’ve entertained the thought of a secondhand store. In your student days, you worked in two bookshops and a library, and loved all three experiences. You imagine yourself linking customers with great books, discussing Tolstoy or the latest Anne Tyler novel with shoppers, and living a life of the mind while providing a service and making money. You’ve even toyed with store names. “Lit Hits?” “Sonnets Bookshop?” Yep, you’re all in on the idea.

Motive? Check.

Opportunity. The space you’ve got your eye on, a former candy store, is on Main Street. The town, population 15,000, draws tourists during the summer and the fall.  The Covid closures left several other stores vacant, so the rent is acceptable. The public library sports a small room of used and discarded books for sale, otherwise there’s no competition for miles around. A good friend has offered to design your website free of charge. You can build your stock through trade, library sales, and scrounging around at thrift stores and yard sales.

Opportunity? Check.

Means. Here’s the tough one. Your spouse works in a private school. Your two children, ages 6 and 8, attend the school at faculty-reduced rates. You own a modest home with a mortgage. You work in insurance, which brings in some money but little satisfaction. Investigation reveals that while used bookstores are proliferating right now, many owners are struggling to earn a living.

Means? Dubious.

Does that mean the death of your dream?

Not at all. It just means your voyage won’t be all sunshine and calm waters. You can hoist the sails, but you’ll step aboard that ship with your eyes—and your wallet—open.

Like other programs recommended by counselors and life coaches, MOM is just a way of weighing our prospects, thinking with our heads and with our hearts. To put aside the dreams of the heart from fear of the unknown can kill the spirit. To chase after those dreams without listening to the head can do the same. Balance is the key.

At any rate, if you’re looking for some help, give MOM a shot.