President Joe Biden’s speech earlier this month told Americans that they have a mistaken view about the economy. Although the average of polls shows that only some 38.3 percent of American voters have confidence in the president’s handling of the economy, the president thinks he is doing a great job, and his speech aimed to assure America of that fact. Not only did he insist that things are looking up but he also assured all that things will get much better once his policies have a chance to take effect. The talk clearly was aimed at the 2024 election. Economic prospects, however, leave little likelihood that the message will gain acceptance.

Mr. Biden will have to work harder than one speech to convince Americans. His approval figures on economics have deteriorated consistently since he took office. In March 2021, just after the second pandemic relief bill became law, some 60 percent of American adults thought the president was doing a good job, generally. That was the high point. Soon thereafter, as signs of inflation began to emerge, his approval ratings began to fall, and they have done so consistently since, down to recent lows.

Despite this less than encouraging backdrop, Mr. Biden took full ownership of his administration’s economic stewardship. Referring to his approach as “Bidenomics,” the president made four arguments. The first focused on the still-strong jobs market. In June, payrolls grew by 209,000 after an even stronger May figure of 306,000. Unemployment, though up off its lows to 3.6 percent of the workforce, remained remarkably low by historical standards. The speech’s second part used the upbeat jobs theme to point out how the economy has avoided the recession once widely anticipated when the Federal Reserve began its anti-inflationary interest-rate hikes.

The speech’s third section turned on less firm footing. The president clung to how inflation has slowed dramatically from the highs of a year ago. At an annual rate of 4 percent, inflation is less than half what it was in June 2022. He implied that the improvement would continue, but offered no reason why it should. In a similar way, Mr. Biden, in the final part of the speech, promised vast economic improvements. He touted his policy of targeting certain investments to drive the economy foreword, contrasting these policies favorably to tax cuts, He gave as evidence last year’s bipartisan infrastructure bill and his legislation to subsidize the domestic manufacture of semiconductors as well as the recently announced $40 billion to bring high-speed internet to the entire country. These steps, he forecast, will pay great dividends, though he admitted that the effects will take time to materialize.

For all this, the president failed to mention other economic indicators and different economic perspectives that, despite the speech’s upbeat framing, might explain his low economics approval rating. A crucial negative that Americans cannot help but note is the state of real wages. Weekly and hourly paychecks have increased, but they have failed to keep up with inflation. Hourly earnings after the effects of inflation have declined more than 3 percent since Mr. Biden took office.

Other important economic indicators show inordinately slow growth, if not signs of outright recession. The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of barely 2 percent during the year’s first quarter, far less than historical averages. Consumer spending—a crucial two-thirds of the economy—increased at an annual rate of only 0.8 percent in real terms during the three months ended May, the last period for which data are available. That speaks to neither confidence among households nor much of an engine of growth. Homebuilding, though up recently, has declined nearly 13 percent over the past year.

If the speech is an early glimpse at the 2024 election campaign—and that is certainly what it looks like—President Biden has taken a high-risk strategy. The election, after all, is 16 months away. For his economic perspective to gain traction, the economy will have to improve visibly over the intervening months. But the Fed is determined to raise interest rates in coming months and at the very least keep them high until inflation retreats to the preferred 2 percent rate, half today’s ongoing rate. That policy posture promises high and possibly rising rates for quite some time yet, a practice that if it does not guarantee recession hardly points to an economic pickup. The president also has effectively promised continued improvements in inflation. But history shows that inflation typically follows a variegated path and will almost surely show signs of worsening at some point during this time. Nor are wages likely to catch up to inflation anytime soon. Things could of course work out, but the likelihoods still suggest that economic conditions will deteriorate before they improve.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.