Labor has secured a clear victory over the Coalition in Australia’s state of New South Wales (NSW), having enough seats in the lower house to form a majority government for the first time in 12 years.
Overall, Labor snatched 10 seats from the Liberals, while there were no Labor seats that fell into the Liberals’ hands. After 12 years of Liberal state governments, Labor saw swings in its favour in 67 of 93 seats, compared to swings to the Liberals in just three seats: Liverpool which Labor retained, Badgerys Creek which the Liberals retained, and Cabramatta which Labor retained.
The Nationals perform slightly better than the Liberals, losing only one seat (Monaro) to Labor, while seeing five electorates swing in their favour. The Nationals, however, also didn’t gain any seats from Labor.
This trend mirrors what happened at the 2022 federal election, in which the Nationals managed to retain more seats than the Liberals.
Following the Liberals’ defeat, several federal members of the Coalition called for the NSW Liberal Party to return to their policies to reflect the party’s founding values.
Labor saw huge gains in Western Sydney—one of Australia’s youngest, fastest growing, and most dynamic regions—which played a key role in bringing the party to victory, with up to five electorates turning from blue to red. These include Camden, East Hills, Parramatta, Riverstone, and Penrith.
Here is a list of key seats that changed colour on Saturday night, based on votes counted on March 26 at 8:40 p.m.
Parramatta was one of the most hotly contested seat this year.
It had been a safe Labor seat before 2011 when Liberal challenger Geoff Lee won on a swing of 25.8 percent. Lee continued to keep the seat for 12 years but is retiring this year. Labor candidate Lord Mayor Donna Davis won over Liberal candidate Katie Mullins by a 6.5 percent margin, signifying a 20.56 percent swing to Labor.
The result came despite the Liberals’ election promise to spend heavily on Parramatta infrastructure, including completing the Parramatta Light Rail stage 1 by 2024 and moving ahead with the Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2. The left-wing Australian Greens, meanwhile, snatched the most votes among the minor parties and independents, with preferences going to Labor.
Ryde had previously been a safe Liberal seat, with Liberal Victoria Dominello holding the seat from 2008 to 2023, when he decided to retire. Ryde fell to Labor this year with a swing of 9.85 percent. Labor candidate Lyndal Howison, a high school teacher and former councillor, grabbed the seat from Liberal candidate Jordan Lane by a tight margin of 1.2 percent.
The Greens, again, had the most votes among the minor parties, winning 10.6 percent of the vote for Labor.
Labor candidate Karen McKeown took Penrith from Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres, who had comfortably retained the seat since the 2010 by-election. Penrith had long been a safe Labor seat, but Ayres claimed victory in 2010 with a swing of 25.7 percent, the biggest swing against a sitting government in NSW history at the time. This year’s result saw McKeown winning by a 5.2 margin, with a 4.33 percent swing to Labor.
Among the minor parties, the conservative One Nation lead on first preference, followed by the Greens.
A long-time safe Labor seat prior to the 2011 election and an ultra-marginal seat since then, East Hills came back to Labor’s hand this year with a 3.7 percent swing to the centre-left party. Liberal Wendy Lindsay failed to secure the East Hills seat, losing to new Labor candidate Kylie Wilkinson by a margin of 5.8 percent.
The Greens lead the first preference vote, followed by an independent.
This is the only electorate where an independent candidate upset a Liberal seat. Wakehurst is a stronghold Liberal seat that was previously held by former federal health minister Brad Hazzard, who’s now retiring. Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan, who echoed Labor’s anti-privatisation campaign sentiment, defeated new Liberal candidate Toby Williams on a massive swing of 55.29 percent. As for the first preference, Labor came right up after Liberal, with the Greens following behind with half of Labor’s votes.
Camden, a historic town where most residents were born in Australia and have European ancestry, is a marginal seat that has traded hands between Liberals and Labor in recent decades. It saw a swing of 13.82 percent against the Liberals this year. Labor’s Sally Qinnell, a music teacher and local business owner, took the seat from Liberal MP Peter Sidgreaves, who was elected in 2019.
Notably, One Nation made significant gains in the first preference votes, winning 14 percent of the votes, compared to 6 percent for the Greens.
Based in Sydney’s growing northwest which includes Blacktown Council, Riverstone was ancestrally a Labor seat. But in 2011, Liberal MP Kevin Connolly turned Riverstone into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke, winning on an impressive 30.2 percent swing—which was almost a record. With Connolly retiring, the seat has been claimed back by Labor’s Warren Kirby, who defeated Liberal’s Mohit Kumar on an 11.28 percent swing. This electorate has a poorly developed transportation and health system and police resources compared to other areas.
The Greens won the majority of votes among the minor parties in first preferences, followed by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF).
Previously held by four Labor members and two Liberal members, Heathcote has come under the control of Labor in the face of a 15.18 percent swing against Liberal. Liberal member Lee Evans found himself defeated by Labor candidate Maryanne Stuart by a comfortable margin of 19.8 percent, although he had successfully protected the seat from Stuart in the 2019 election.
Similar to Riverstone, the Greens held the most votes among the minor parties but were chased by the SFF.
This is the only seat that the Nationals couldn’t retain. Monaro, which includes the Snowy Mountains and sheep and beef cattle farmers, has been traded hands between Labor and National since 1976. Previously held by National MP Nichole Overall, it fell into the hands of Labor’s Steve Whan this year. Whan won on a 15.46 percent swing and by a 2.3 percent margin.
The Greens got 7.8 percent of the votes in the first preferences, followed by the SFF party.
Another seat that Labor took from the Liberals by a notable swing of 14.37 percent was Terrigal. The race was tight, however, with Liberal MP Adam Crouch leading first preference votes, ahead of Labor candidate Sam Boughton by a 3.6 percent margin.
The Greens came third, having 9.7 of the votes, which secured the win for Labor.
Terrigal is a fairly new seat created in the redistribution prior to the 2007 election. Since 2015, it was the only Central Coast electorate held by the Liberals, which is no longer the case after this year’s election.
This electorate straddles the narrow coastal belt between Shoalhaven district in the north and the border with Victoria in the south. Labor’s Shoalhaven Councillor Lisa Butler took the seat from new Liberal candidate Luke Sikora on a 15.61 percent swing.
The Greens had almost half of the Liberal vote in first preferences.
The results from the upper house are still pending. Early counts also show a swing in favour of Labor.