WASHINGTON—Who succeeds Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) won’t officially be decided until after the November election, but just in the next few days an issue that has bedeviled Republicans for years could decisively shape the outcome.
The issue is earmarks—federal tax dollars set aside by individual senators and representatives for specific projects back home.
More than 6,000 of which with a total value of $12.7 billion are included in a “minibus” package of six appropriations bills made public on March 3.
Shortly after the six bills became public, Senate conservatives, including at least one who is expected to enter the succession contest, unleashed a barrage of tweets critically highlighting earmarks.
“Earmarks turn Republicans Democrat. No Republican should support them. No Republican should vote for this bill,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) wrote on X.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) published multiple posts; stating in one that “It’s just like the swamp to take YOUR money, borrow more, and push it all into reckless political pet projects. That’s earmarks in a nutshell.”
Mr. Scott criticized Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) request for $1 million “to build a new environmental justice center in NYC. Give me a break.”
Up against two government shutdown deadlines on March 8 and March 22, the House voted 339–85 to pass the package on March 6, which will keep open the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Interior, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.
The Senate is expected to vote on the package by March 8.
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Clearly against earmarks, Mr. Scott is all but an announced candidate to succeed Mr. McConnell. He was quick to publicize his meeting on March 4 with former President Donald Trump, the likely GOP presidential nominee.
The Florida lawmaker, who unsuccessfully challenged the GOP Senate leader in 2022, will join Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the 2024 contest.
The spending bill containing the earmarks “is of course insulting to conservatives,” a senior Senate GOP aide who requested anonymity, told The Epoch Times.
“Mitch McConnell seems completely disinterested in fighting for Republican priorities—other than Ukraine funding,” the aide said.
“I don’t think the earmarks are changing anyone’s major calculations about the GOP leadership race, but I could certainly see contenders promising to fight earmarks under their tenure as a way of attracting conservative votes. I would hope they do.”
Earmarks promise to be a big problem for Mr. Thune, a moderate conservative Republican who has been Senate Republican Whip since 2021. He is not bashful about seeking earmarks, with, for example, nearly $44 million for three projects in the transportation spending bill.
Mr. Cornyn is not listed with any earmarks in the current spending package, but may yet be in appropriations considered in coming weeks.
Sen. John Barasso (R-Wyo.), the present Senate Republican conference chairman, is seeking to move up from the number three slot in the GOP leadership to number two. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who is thought to nurture presidential hopes, is seeking the position Mr. Barasso will leave in November.
Another potential rival for Mr. McConnell’s spot include Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who has told aides he’s not interested in the job, but who prior to being elected to the U.S. Senate, was the youngest-ever House majority leader in the Florida state legislature.
Possible dark horses are Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who is one of the Senate’s most conservative members, and Sen. Jone Ernst (R-Iowa), a military veteran and presently the Senate Republican policy chairman. Another possibility, especially if Republicans make major gains in November, is Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who directs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the campaign arm of the Senate GOP.
The electoral numbers strongly favor the GOP in November. Only 10 Republican Senators face reelection bids this year, while 20 Democrats and all three independents are in the hot seat. One independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona announced on March 5 she is retiring.
Winning the race to succeed Mr. McConnell could very well mean becoming Senate Majority Leader, one of Washington’s most powerful jobs. The position will be more potent if Mr. Trump is returned to the White House and Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives.
Mr. Lee leaves no doubt about the kind of leadership he expects from Mr. McConnell’s successor.
“The next Republican Senate leader must actually fight for Republican priorities, not whip votes to pass massive Democrat spending bills, ”he told The Epoch Times.
“After generations of backroom spending deals, we finally have the opportunity to achieve conservative victories with leadership that reflects the concerns of millions of American families.”
The Utah Republican said “we must secure the border, lower the cost of living, and restore constitutional government in Washington.”
How Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn, and any other potential rivals, handle earmarks is a litmus test eight months from the 2024 election.
“Both Senators Cornyn and Thune need to avoid becoming ‘McConnelled’ where they become an issue for Republicans in primaries if one of them continues to vote for appropriations bills loaded with earmarks and not coming close to balancing the budget,” said Brian Darling, Republican campaign strategist and veteran senior Republican Senate staff aide.
“Either Thune or Cornyn could differentiate themselves by opposing appropriations bills loaded with earmarks and don’t cut spending,” he told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Darling was referring to steadily mounting frustration in recent years among the increasingly conservative Senate GOP with Mr. McConnell’s alleged tendency to cave too easily to Democrats’ demands for more federal spending year in and year out.
Mitchell Brown, director of political strategy for the Cygnal polling firm, expects more candidates to step forward in coming months.
“The Republican Party is at a pivotal juncture in its growth. The younger generation of senators is veering from the standard for older senators, meaning we are unlikely to see a continuation of the last 25 years,” Mr. Brown told The Epoch Times.
“While Barasso, Scott, Cornyn, and Thune are likely to run or are already running, everyone should expect a few dark horses to rise to shake things up, similar to what we saw in the House but with less drama.”
Mr. Brown also believes Mr. McConnell’s decision to retire after a historically lengthy leadership career in the Senate had little to do with President Trump and a great deal to do with the significantly more conservative culture among Republican lawmakers.
“Mitch McConnell is a political animal. He doesn’t care much about what Trump does or thinks. It’s clear he is reading the tea leaves and seems to feel that he has already secured his legacy, particularly with the courts, and knows the future is now with a new breed of conservatism,” he said.
Also known as “pork barrel spending,” earmarks were first targeted in the Senate in 2006.
Sen. Tom Coburn’s (R-Okla.) determined opposition to wasteful spending earned him the sobriquet “Dr. No” among colleagues.
Mr. Coburn called earmarks the “gateway drug for federal spending addiction.”
Earmark sponsors were traditionally anonymous and became a target of the Tea Party Revolution in 2010, which helped elect Mr. Lee and Mr. Rubio, as well as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2012.
Both chambers of Congress had adopted “earmark moratoriums,” but they reappeared in 2019 with support from leaders and members of both political parties.
Conservatives in both chambers opposed the return of earmarks.
Sponsors of earmarks are now made public and the measures are officially referred to as “Community Funding Projects.”