Taiwan put its military assets on alert Wednesday after the Chinese military sent close to three dozen aircraft and some warships near the island nation’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
“34 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. R.O.C. Armed Forces have monitored the situation and tasked CAP aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond these activities,” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said in a Feb. 1 tweet. “20 of the detected aircraft … had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ.”
Chinese incursions are now almost a daily occurrence in the region, with Beijing carrying out such activities in an attempt to reinforce its military prowess.
The Chinese military sent a record 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan at the end of December, the largest such military exercise last year.
On Jan. 25, four Chinese aircraft and three naval vessels were detected by the Taiwanese military. The incursion had come just days after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen wrote a letter to Pope Francis on Jan. 23, noting that constructive interaction with China is only a possibility if Beijing respects Taiwan’s freedoms and democracy.
Beijing does not see Taiwan as a separate country and insists that the island is part of Chinese territory. The communist regime has admitted that it won’t shy away from using force to annex Taiwan.
On Jan. 11, Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said that Beijing was committed to “smashing plots for Taiwan independence,” according to AP. “The malicious support for Taiwan independence among anti-China elements in a few foreign countries are a deliberate provocation,” he insisted.
Ma also warned that foreign politicians who interact with Taiwan are “playing with fire.” In recent months, politicians from the European Union and the United States had visited the island. In August, the then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the highest-ranking American official in 25 years to do so.
Meanwhile, General Mike Minihan, who heads the U.S. Air Mobility Command, warned about the possibility of America going to war with China in two years.
In a memo dated Feb. 1, Minihan points out that Chinese leader Xi Jinping secured a third term in October last year while both the United States and Taiwan are set to hold their presidential elections in 2024. The U.S. presidential election might offer Xi a “distracted America,” he notes.
“I hope I am wrong. My guts tell me we will fight in 2025 … Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025. We spent 2022 setting the foundation for victory. We will spend 2023 in crisp operational motion building on that foundation,” Minihan said in the memo.
In October last year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that China intends to move against Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than earlier estimates. Xi has become “more repressive at home” and “more aggressive abroad.”
America’s policy on Taiwan has so far allowed the people of the island nation to “really flourish” while also avoiding any conflict with China. But now that’s changing. Beijing is speedily pursuing its unification push, he warned.
“If peaceful means didn’t work, then it [Beijing] would employ coercive means and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means—to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions.”
However, White House’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan expressed hope on Jan. 5 that China can be deterred from launching an invasion against Taiwan and that the risk of a U.S. conflict with Beijing can be avoided “with responsible stewardship.”
Sullivan said that the United States will need to follow through on “commitments of the Taiwan Relations Act” which state that the country will “provide defensive articles to Taiwan,” besides maintaining “direct diplomacy” with the Chinese Communist Party.
He added that close “coordination with allies” in the region will also act as a deterrent to war.
Meanwhile, many Republicans are currently voicing support for the present House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to visit Taiwan after Beijing warned against such visits.