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The Economist
The Economist
21 Oct 2024


NextImg:Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast
United States | Poll position

Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast

With two weeks to go, the Republican candidate now has a slight lead

FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast shows that Mr Trump has a 54% chance of returning to the White House, up six percentage points during the past week. Although the race still remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction.

A roll of "I Voted" stickers is displayed at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center (MCTEC) in Phoenix, Arizona, USA.

A culture of conspiracy haunts Arizona’s elections

America’s biggest swing county ramps up security before the vote


Illustration of Elon musk in a tiny cyber truck, Donald Trump holds his hand while he stomps on a car

One big thing Donald Trump and Elon Musk have in common

They both want to crush Tesla’s competition


Vital election races in Wisconsin are awfully close

America’s dairyland is giving Democrats some heartburn

Voters won’t thank Kamala Harris for the state of the economy

Why voters are down on America’s remarkable economy