Britain is, in general, ruled by the Conservative Party for a simple reason: small-“c” conservative voters unite behind one party, whereas progressive voters split themselves across many parties. Thinkers labelled this the “progressive dilemma”: until progressives learned to work together, they would be locked out of power.

This rule was a good way to understand British politics until 10.01pm BST on July 4th, when the polls closed and the exit poll for the general election was released. Labour had underperformed its polling slightly, hitting only around 36% of the vote. For once, however, it was the right rather than the left that was fatally split. The Conservatives won around 23%, its lowest vote share in modern history. The reason? Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party, which won an estimated 17% of all votes cast. The result? A stonking majority of 170 for the Labour Party and the Conservative Party’s worst performance ever. The progressive dilemma no longer shapes British politics; the regressive dilemma now rules.