


What are the odds of an upset in Texas or Florida?
Beating unpopular senators in Trump country may be Democrats’ only shot at holding the Senate
“I’VE BEEN saying this for months now and a lot of people haven’t listened, but now they are: the stars are aligning in both Texas and Florida,” says Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee. Aboard a swanky campaign bus in Jacksonville, Florida’s largest city, Mr Harrison’s tone shifts to distress as he explains that his party needs “multiple pathways to get the Senate majority”. In the final weeks of the campaign the map has become more daunting for Democrats. To their dismay, holding the upper chamber may now depend on flipping seats in America’s two biggest Republican-controlled states, where Donald Trump is expected to win comfortably.
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Why Kamala Harris’s chances of victory just jumped
Our forecast now puts her level with Donald Trump

Could a mechanic in Nebraska determine control of the Senate?
Dan Osborn is challenging Republicans for the state’s working-class vote

How wrong could America’s pollsters be?
Gamblers are a lot more confident that Donald Trump will win
War is not the only reason some Muslims are ditching the Democrats
In Michigan, where Kamala Harris leads by less than a percentage point, it could be the difference
Donald Trump returns to New York for a bombastic closing pitch
And finds adulation in his hometown
Donald Trump could entrench a MAGA Supreme Court for a generation
Meet the leading contenders to replace Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito