IN DECEMBER 2022 Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, was given a rapturous welcome when he addressed a joint session of Congress. “Against all the gloom and doom scenarios, Ukraine didn’t fall,” he declared to applause and standing ovations. “Ukraine is alive and kicking.”

But for how long can Ukraine hold out? A year on, as Mr Zelensky makes another trip to Washington on December 12th, gloom is returning. President Joe Biden has warned that money for military and economic assistance to Ukraine has all but run out. Arms packages for Ukraine have already been shrinking. But no matter how much Mr Biden warns that world order and America’s security depend on supporting Ukraine, he has been unable since September to convince Congress to provide more funds.

The White House is hoping that Mr Zelensky’s personal charisma can unblock things. The actor turned wartime leader is his country’s best advocate, officials say. But these days Ukraine’s friends are increasingly downcast. What should be a bipartisan mission to support an embattled democracy has become hostage to a deeply partisan issue: Republicans insist that help for Ukraine depends on toughening asylum rules to curb migration across America’s southern border.

In Europe, too, the mood risks turning against Ukraine’s long war. A European summit on December 14th and 15th had been expected to approve a further €50bn ($54bn) in EU aid, and the start of formal accession talks for Ukraine to join the EU. But Hungary is blocking both moves and agreement may not be possible. Mr Zelensky met its leader, Viktor Orban, in Buenos Aires, on the sidelines of the inauguration of Argentina’s president, Javier Milei. But their exchange, which Mr Zelensky called “frank”, seems to have done little to shift Mr Orban.

Faltering Western support for Ukraine coincides with growing problems for Mr Zelensky at home: the failure of Ukraine’s counter-offensive to break through Russian lines; economic pressure as Russia engages in another winter assault on Ukraine’s electrical-power system, using missiles and drones; and the emergence of domestic political splits. A worsening of any of these fronts is likely to aggravate other ones.

According to the Kiel Institute, a German think-tank, Ukraine received pledges of economic and military assistance worth €255bn in the period from the start of the war until October 31st. Of this at least €156bn came from European countries and institutions, and €71bn from the United States. Some of the European aid has come in the form of multi-year commitments; America has led the way in short-term military aid, much of it in the form of “presidential drawdown authority” (PDA) allowing the Pentagon to send weapons from its own stocks. The Pentagon in theory has about $5bn left in the PDA account, but less than $1bn in the pot to replenish weapons supplies. Top brass seem reluctant to give away more than they are allowed to buy back.

The Biden administration’s Office of Management and Budget warned Congress that money for Ukraine would run out at the end of the month. “There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money—and nearly out of time,” it said in a letter.

The White House said Mr Biden had invited Mr Zelensky to Washington “to underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion”. But the White House knows the power of the purse lies with Congress, whose commitment to Ukraine is more shakeable than ever—especially now that “America First” devotees, critical of Ukraine, are energised by the prospect of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. “What’s in America’s best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians,” said one Trumpian senator, J.D. Vance.

The administration has requested $61bn in Ukraine-related aid, including funds to replenish American arsenals. It has sought to wrap that in a bigger national-security package that includes military aid for Israel and Taiwan, as well as funds for improving America’s submarine-building capacity and for border management.

But the Senate voted down a $111bn version of the bill on December 6th, with even pro-Ukraine Republicans insisting that Democrats had to agree to tougher asylum curbs. Mr Biden admits that the border system is “broken” but has rejected Republican demands as “extreme”.

Much of the problem lies in the House of Representatives, where Mr Trump’s followers hold the Republican leadership in a head-lock because of the party’s narrow majority. Mr Zelensky will meet the newish speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, who in the past voted against Ukraine aid but has sounded more supportive of late.

Mr Zelensky’s senior officials express confidence—or perhaps just hope—that the money will be forthcoming, if not before Congress breaks up for the Christmas holiday then early in the new year. But congressional figures involved in the negotiations say delay will make reaching a deal ever harder because of election-year grandstanding, fear of antagonising voters by spending on foreign wars, and the need to pass spending bills to avoid a shutdown of the federal government.

On December 7th David Cameron, making his first trip to Washington as Britain’s foreign secretary, took the unusual step of wading into America’s debate, urging Congress to pass the aid package. “If that money doesn’t get voted through, there are only two people that will be smiling,” he told the Aspen Security Forum. “One of them is Vladimir Putin in Russia. The other one is Xi Jinping in Beijing. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to give either of those people a Christmas present.” ■