UKRAINE’S COUNTER-OFFENSIVE is just a few days old. But its shape is gradually becoming clearer. One axis points east, at the area around the bloodily contested town of Bakhmut and in Luhansk province. Another aims south and south-east from Vuhledar in Donetsk province. The third is perhaps the most important. On June 8th it became apparent that Ukraine had launched a major southward assault in Zaporizhia province, which forms the central part of the war’s long frontline. It looks like the biggest one yet.

Although the attack began earlier, overnight on June 8th Ukrainian troops advanced in two prongs from Orikhiv, a small Ukrainian-held town, according to a source familiar with the course of fighting. One advance hugged the Konka river, a tributary of the Dnieper that snakes east of the town. The other occurred further east. Russian military bloggers on Telegram, a messaging platform, described a fierce assault with heavy artillery bombardment and the use of tanks.

Russia’s defence ministry claimed to have repelled an attack in Novodarivka, which lies almost 70km east of Orikhiv. On June 8th Yevgeny Balitsky, the leader of Russia’s puppet government in the occupied part of Zaporizhia, ordered residents in Tokmak and a pair of towns on either side, Vasylivka and Polohy, to evacuate to Simferopol in Crimea. There was reportedly heavy fighting around the area.

There are some early signs that the attack in Zaporizhia differs from those in the east and south. One is the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian assault. Another is the equipment that is being used. Drone images published by Russian media appear to show German Leopard tanks, including the most advanced 2A6 variants; American Bradley armoured fighting vehicles; and M113 armoured personnel carriers in Mala Tokmachka, a village to the east of Orikhiv. That would suggest that Ukraine has committed several of its nine Western-armed and -trained brigades–including some of the best-equipped ones, according to leaked Pentagon documents from February—in the area.

Military experts and officials had long thought that Zaporizhia was a logical place for Ukraine to focus its offensive. Its position at the heart of the frontline means that any attack there could trap large numbers of Russian troops in a pocket to the west, in Kherson province. Many could also be trapped in Crimea itself, if Ukraine managed to strike the bridge over the Kerch strait again. If Ukraine could get to the key city of Melitopol, it could strike at Russian road and rail supply lines running westwards to Crimea, in essence severing the so-called land bridge that connects Russian territory to the occupied peninsula. Just getting to within artillery range of the links would also cause big problems for Russia.

For the same reason, Russia has assiduously built multiple lines of defence in Zaporizhia north of Tokmak, stretching back 30km, drone and satellite imagery shows. These include trenches, shelters, anti-tank ditches and obstacles, and minefields. Tokmak itself is entirely surrounded by circular ditches that can house anti-tank teams and multiple strongpoints, notes Pasi Paroinen, a Finnish reserve army officer who analyses such imagery.

The point of such defences is not to halt an attack, but to channel it into certain areas and slow it down so it can be struck and broken up. Wargames conducted by Ukraine’s allies, last year and more recently, showed that any advance on Melitopol would be difficult and costly: Ukraine’s flanks would be exposed to Russian attacks and Russia’s air force could use long-range “glide bombs” to attack advancing columns.

Ukraine’s progress is unclear. Some open-source analysts sound gloomy. “The attack is going rather slowly,” says Emil Kastehelmi, a Finnish analyst. “At the moment it doesn’t seem very good for the Ukrainians.” One image shows Leopard tanks being struck by mines and artillery after driving single-file down a narrow road—a questionable tactic that ravaged Russian armour last year.

Even so, Western officials remain sanguine. “It has all gone according to plan on that axis,” insists one. “Things are OK,” says a Ukrainian military source, “but really hard going…we needed more artillery systems and strike drones for the offensive to go as we would have liked.” Michael Kofman of CNA, a think-tank, counsels patience: “It is too early to judge the operation, as much of the fighting has only reached Russia’s initial lines. The indications are that Ukrainian forces have made gains, digging into Russian lines, but also that the fighting is heavy, resulting in losses.” Few expected otherwise.

The key question is whether the offensive will look more like Kherson or Kharkiv. Last year’s Ukrainian assault directed at Kherson city was a slow, grinding and attritional contest, with sticky frontlines giving way only after months of inconclusive battle. By contrast, the assault in Kharkiv quickly punched through a weak point in Russian lines, with Ukrainian units moving forward more quickly than Russian defenders could regroup. The result was a rout.

Russian lines are now far denser and better protected than they were in Kharkiv, with much higher-calibre soldiers. But Ukraine’s army is better equipped and trained. Its initial attacks in Zaporizhia may be intended to force Russia to send its scant reserves into the second and third echelon of defences—to man trenches, for instance—creating gaps elsewhere. Nor can Russia afford simply to divert all its troops to the south.

That is because Ukrainian attacks in the east have also stepped up, with Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s army commander, is attempting a pincer movement in Bakhmut. Russian lines there are well manned, say officials, but with sub-par troops. Elsewhere, the flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on June 6th has caused not only a humanitarian disaster on both Ukrainian- and Russian-held sides of the Dnieper river, but also significant disruption to Russia’s defensive positions in the area. Journalists were asked to leave the area on June 8th, as artillery duels grew more intense. As the waters recede, Ukraine might find it easier to cross the river into eastern Kherson. Ukraine’s generals are keeping many irons in the fire, and this operation is still in its very early stages.■