GOOD NEWS has been thin on the ground for Ukraine of late. Its counter-offensive to kick out Russian troops has stalled, the fighting in Israel and Gaza has stolen some of the limelight it needs to keep money and arms flowing from allies, and the prospect of Trumpism rebooted in America feels ever more real. So a thumbs up from the EU that Ukraine is on track in its journey towards joining the club will be a welcome fillip in Kyiv—even though it will be years before it actually becomes a member.

On November 8th the European Commission in Brussels unveiled its annual assessment of how countries who aspire to become EU members are getting on with the reforms needed to do so. Eight are actively vying to join as well as Ukraine, including Georgia, Moldova and six countries in the western Balkans that have sought to join the EU for decades. (Turkey is nominally still a candidate country, but its accession talks have been placed on hold.) Ukraine is by far the biggest of the active applicants.

The upshot of the report is that Ukraine and Moldova should be given the green light to start formal negotiations to join by the end of the year—once the leaders of the EU’s members approve the commission’s recommendation. This would be an upgrade to their previous status as mere “candidate countries”, granted in June 2022. The report is not unambiguously positive: Ukraine is expected to deliver further reforms around the treatment of minorities, “de-oligarchisation” and combating corruption as a condition to keep making progress in talks.

European officials helping their colleagues in Kyiv tick the required boxes have been impressed by the progress made. “They are moving forward fast, and not just in the circumstances of a country at war,” says one commission official. Nonetheless it will be some years before Ukraine’s blue-and-yellow flag is flying outside Brussels buildings. A target date of 2030 floated by Charles Michel, who chairs meetings of EU leaders as president of the European Council, is seen as overly ambitious by many. Negotiations for Croatia, which in 2013 became the most recent country to join the EU, took six years.

Part of the problem is that joining the EU requires the unanimous approval of all existing member states at every stage of the process. Plenty speak of a “merit-based” process, ie, one that does not offer short-cuts to aspiring member states—a phrase the commission used too as it unveiled its new report. Nobody wants to allow any new members to join, only for them to renege on commitments around the rule of law and democratic norms, as has happened notably in Hungary in recent years.

So the road to accession will be long. One diplomat estimates that national capitals will have between 300 and 400 opportunities in effect to veto any new joiner, as progress on various metrics is gauged over the years. Nobody speaks critically of Ukraine publicly. But some diplomats privately express concern that it will be tricky to grant access to a country that does not fully control its territory, let alone to one at war. “Would Crimea be part of the single market?” asks one. A deal to provide Ukrainian agricultural products tariff-free access to the EU at the outset of the war later proved such a burden on neighbouring countries such as Poland that they in effect blockaded exports from their ally. Further similar problems would surely arise as actual membership neared.

Such questions will not apply to the other aspiring members. The western Balkans have benefited hugely from Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU, which have rekindled the entire idea of enlargement. Some, though, question the fairness of allowing Ukraine to potentially join ahead of countries that have been hoping to become EU members for years; Edi Rama, the Albanian prime minister, has quipped that Balkan countries should declare war on each other to accelerate their own membership talks.

More broadly, war on the continent has pointed to the risks of having “grey zones”—countries that border the EU but are under the influence of rivals. Russia has plenty of sympathisers in the Balkans, notably in Bosnia-Herzegovina. That was once irritating; in these new geopolitical times it is intolerable. Turkey, China and Gulf states are also seen as encroaching on what the EU now thinks of as its backyard, with offers of aid and investment. The upshot is that vague promises of EU enlargement tomorrow are having to be replaced by concrete negotiating timelines today.

Such geopolitical imperatives will not cause the EU to close its eyes to shortcomings in applicants. Bosnia has been singled-out for criticism on matters concerning the rule of law, so although it is a candidate, its detailed accession negotiations have still not begun; Georgia is further behind in the joining process but now  looks likely at least  to gain candidate status in December. Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, its former province, which five EU member states do not even recognise as an independent country, occasionally flare up into violence. The hope is that getting them closer to EU membership will give a boost to liberal forces that will improve governance.

A last thorny question is how the EU will have to reform to allow up to nine new members. A union of 27 is already tricky to manage, notably in areas where unanimity is required, as is the case in matters of foreign policy and setting the EU budget. Recasting the institutions for 36 members will prove tricky. But by giving a tentative green light to the aspiring members, the EU’s existing countries are committing that they too will be ready when the time comes. ■