BY EARLY MAY, people headed to college in America have usually settled on an institution and cut the first of several large cheques. This year, a government cock-up has left admissions in a mess. For months youngsters have been struggling to apply for student loans, Pell grants and other financial aid—the result of a botched effort to revamp the system through which these are doled out. The question is no longer whether this is likely to drive down the number of people starting degrees this autumn, but how sharp the drop will be.

At the heart of the problem lie changes to the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA—the web form that must be completed to qualify for most federal, state and institutional assistance. No tears were shed when, in 2020, Congress blessed plans to simplify it. Its 100 or so questions have long put off low-income students in two minds about higher education, and exasperated everyone else. Yet the new version did not limp online until months after this year’s college application season had started. And it was riddled with bugs.