Ever since Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis on October 7th 2023, violence has been spreading. One year on, the Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran. Israel’s decapitation of Hizbullah, a Lebanese militia backed by Iran, prompted the Islamic Republic to rain missiles on Israel on October 1st. Israel may retaliate, hoping to end the threat it poses to the Jewish state. But the idea that a single decisive attack on Iran could transform the Middle East is a fantasy. As our special section explains, containing the Iranian regime requires deterrence and diplomacy. In the long run, Israel’s security also depends on ending its oppression of the Palestinians. The challenge is to translate military prowess into lasting strategic gains and ultimately peace. Without that, blood will keep flowing for years to come.