THE ESCAPE of Daniel Abdel Khalife, a terror suspect, from a prison in London on September 6th, has to rank among the most brazen. Mr Khalife, a former soldier, was being held in His Majesty’s Prison Wandsworth, where he was trusted enough to work in the kitchen. It appears that early in the morning, after a food-delivery lorry had been unloaded, he somehow strapped himself to its undercarriage and was driven out through the prison gates. His escape has sparked a manhunt involving at least 150 police officers. Some have been hunting for him in Richmond Park, London’s largest. Lorries destined for the port of Dover are snaking up the motorway as additional checks are carried out. Officials say it is possible that he has fled the country.

It is undoubtedly embarrassing to lose a prisoner, and especially to lose one accused of making bomb threats and, potentially, collecting information that could be useful for an enemy state. Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour Party’s leader and a former director of public prosecutions, has suggested that disruption in the justice ministry—which has had ten secretaries over the past ten years—may have led to troubles for the criminal-justice system. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, has countered by observing that prison escapes are much rarer than in the past. He suggested there were “ten times” more prison escapes when Labour was last in power (between 1997 and 2010) than in the past 13 years of Conservative rule.

The data show that under the Tories escapes from prison have certainly come down (see chart). Between April 1997 and March 2010 (which corresponds pretty closely to Labour’s period in office) 146 inmates escaped from prison, or nine times as many as the 16 who have run away since. This appears to be because of more investments in security systems, such as scanners at gates. (Oddly, the data exclude escapees who manage to flee for less than 15 minutes and fail to commit a crime.)

But that total omits a different category of escapees: prisoners who get away not from the institution itself, but while being escorted off prison grounds, for example to attend court or to be treated in hospital. Add these to the total, and 697 prisoners escaped while Labour was in office, whereas 156 prisoners have got away under the Tories. That’s still a welcome improvement, though less dramatic than Mr Sunak suggested.

The public, however, may also care about the types of prisoners who manage to get out. Escapes from “category A” prisons, the most secure institutions that hold the most dangerous inmates, are thankfully rare. While Labour was in office, no one got out of such a prison. In the past 13 years two offenders have done so. (Mr Khalife, despite being a terror suspect, was not held in one: HMP Wandsworth is in category “B”.) A more common route to “escape” is for prisoners granted temporary release to fail to return on time. The number of prisoners breaking the terms of their temporary release hit a record high of 746 in the year to March, 40% higher than the previous year’s figure. Sixty-five of those prisoners failed to return to prison after being granted temporary permission to leave.

As the manhunt began, the government launched an internal inquiry to try to find out how Mr Khalife escaped. It seems possible he had help. A shortage of staff may have been a factor. Although the prison population has been static since March 2010, the number of prison officers has fallen by 10% to 22,000 over the same period. Staff who quit the service cite concerns about safety: assaults on staff have doubled over the past decade. A recent recruitment drive has been trying to attract more people, particularly from former members of the armed forces. One line of inquiry is whether prison officers or other staff helped Mr Khalife to get out.

The break came a few days after Germany refused to extradite an Albanian man to Britain,  because of concerns about human rights and poor prison conditions. These are undoubtedly bad. Of the 85,000 men and women locked up in Britain, 23% are in overcrowded cells.

If data on previous escapees are a guide, Mr Khalife is unlikely to remain on the run for long. Most runaways are caught. Of 146 prisoners who have escaped since 2012, just 23 remained at large after 30 days. Mr Khalife will find it increasingly difficult to lie low: his face is now appearing prominently in the news all over the country. ■