GERMANS MAY be renowned for obeying rules, but they seem to be resisting the Ampel, or traffic light. This cheery nickname for the left-of-centre coalition elected to run the central government two years ago refers to the colours of its three component parties: red for the Social Democrats (SPD), yellow for the Free Democrats (FDP) and, unsurprisingly, green the Greens. But judging by the elections held in two important states on October 8th, the German public seems less interested in the Ampel’s stop-and-go signals than in turning sharply to the right.

Together, the central state of Hesse and the southern state of Bavaria–Germany’s biggest by area– account for almost a quarter of the country’s population. Not surprisingly, their simultaneous  elections are being seen as harbingers of broader political trends. These do not look good for Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, or his coalition. In both states all three Ampel parties fared worse than five years ago. Indeed the smallest of the three parties, the liberal-leaning FDP, embarrassingly dropped below the 5% minimum needed to hold any seats in the Landtag, or state assembly, of Bavaria, and was flirting with that threshold in Hesse.

The Ampel’s pain was the right wing’s gain. In Hesse the incumbent government was headed by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), long Germany’s biggest party. In Bavaria it was headed by the CDU’s regional sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), under its leader Markus Söder (pictured on poster). The party has held power without interruption since 1957. With vote-counting almost complete, the CDU had won 35% in Hesse and the CSU 37% in Bavaria. The twin parties remain the largest in their states, and will almost certainly again lead their next governing coalitions.

More surprising has been the surge of two farther-right parties. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a hard-right outfit shunned by Germany’s political mainstream for its immigrant-bashing rhetoric and extremist tendencies, emerged as the second-strongest in both states. In Bavaria it got 16%, six percentage points more than in the previous election in 2018. In Hesse it won 18%, up five percentage points. These are unusually strong results, not only because the AfD’s stronghold has been more in eastern than in southern states, but because Hesse and Bavaria are both home to large—and relatively integrated—immigrant communities. The rival Free Voters party, a rurally-based traditionalist group with little footprint beyond the south, also surged by more than three points in Bavaria, to 15%.

The rightward lurch means that, taken together, conservatives now account for two-thirds of votes in Bavaria and well over half in Hesse, a stark danger signal for the Ampel almost halfway through its term. Ironically, however, this apparent peril makes it more likely that Mr Scholz’s government will complete its term. With his junior partners, the liberal FDP and the Greens, getting pasted at the polls, neither they nor Mr Scholz’s SPD have any interest in pulling the Ampel down.

And while the surge in support for the AfD worries many Germans, the party’s stronger showing may prove hard to translate into greater power. All other parties still reject the idea of coalition deals with the hard right. Cooler analysts note that its gains have been made on specific hot-button issues, most importantly immigration, and a successful campaign of bashing the Greens for the supposed excesses of the environmental legislation they back. The election debates were dominated by gleeful mud-throwing at the Greens, often accompanied by outright untruths, such as charges that they would ban automobiles and fireplaces.

Mr Scholz and his coalition have certainly heard the warnings. The Ampel’s rhetoric on immigration has grown notably tougher lately, and the Green party has trimmed its environmental ambitions. Perhaps, in another two years, their colourful lights can lure some of those voters back.■