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The Economist
The Economist
8 Oct 2024


NextImg: Putting the “October surprise” in American elections in perspective
United States | Campaign calculus: expecting the unexpected

Putting the “October surprise” in American elections in perspective

The idea has been bigger than the reality

IN OCTOBER OF a presidential-election year, observers of American politics give the expression “expect the unexpected” new meaning. With a month to go, and early voting under way, nerves begin to fray. Poll-watchers and pundits brace for the story that will upend the contest. Excitement about an “October surprise” mounts. And yet the phenomenon is usually a damp squib.

Illustration of blue legs crossing a red dotted line.

Donald Trump is preparing an assault on America’s immigration system

The divide between the two candidates on migration is stark, but it has narrowed

Illustration of scissors cutting a Tax paper in half. The scissors are red and the paper is blue.

What America’s presidential election means for taxes

The second in our series of policy briefs


The U.S. Supreme Court building.

The Supreme Court begins another contentious term

Guns, vapes, online porn and health care for transgender youth dot the docket


What America’s presidential election means for world trade

The first in a series of eight concise briefs on the consequences of the 2024 election

Checks and Balance newsletter: gender politics in the election 

Both parties are telling very different stories about gender

Many Americans can decide their own policies. What will they choose?

Three issues will dominate state ballot measures in November