And yet this is not as sorry a position as it might seem. Yes, most Americans do not want Mr Biden to run again. But reluctant Democrats will line up behind their nominee. And, more importantly, an even higher number do not want another four years of Mr Trump. Among voters in general, Mr Biden’s numbers (minus ten points if you subtract those who feel negatively about him from those who feel positive) beat Mr Trump’s (minus 19). Nor is Mr Biden’s approval rating as bad as it seems if the point of comparison is not just past American presidents but the current presidents and prime ministers of other rich countries. Western voters are hard to lead in the 2020s: Justin Trudeau in Canada, Rishi Sunak in Britain and Emmanuel Macron in France all have even lower approval ratings than Mr Biden (see chart).
In theory, sitting presidents run on their records. Were that the case, Mr Biden could feel more confident ahead of next year’s vote. He has done more than almost anyone to prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine, without deploying any American troops. At home his big idea has been to pursue an industrial policy aimed at increasing the domestic manufacture of semiconductor chips, thereby easing American dependence on Taiwan, and to hand out subsidies aimed at speeding up the decarbonisation of America’s economy. This may be unwelcome to free-traders (and to some allies), but it goes with the mood of a country that has profited richly from globalisation while remaining convinced that it is under threat from foreign trade. As president, Mr Biden’s boast that he could make deals with the Senate that others could not—because he had spent 36 years working there—turned out to be true.
In practice, though, elections are not just referendums on the achievements of the incumbent. Campaigning matters. And Mr Biden is not very good at it. His vice-president, whose autocue sometimes seems to be controlled by Armando Iannucci, is not much help either. In 2020 big gatherings of people were prevented by the spread of covid-19. That suited Mr Biden, as did the economic slowdown.
Next year will be different. If the economy stays strong, Mr Biden has a good chance of winning. Put another way, a Biden-Trump rematch would be much more uncertain than it should be, relying on factors beyond Mr Biden’s control. If Mr Trump is indeed the nominee, he promises a revenge presidency (“I am your retribution,” he declared to fans at a recent gathering); and his second White House would be staffed with true believers. The task of preventing that will fall again on Mr Biden’s octogenarian shoulders. Every stumble he makes over the next year and a half will be a reminder of that burden. ■