SCOTLAND HAS a new first minister. Humza Yousaf, the 37-year-old health secretary, will succeed Nicola Sturgeon as the head of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and thus of the nation’s devolved government. In a (since-soured) partnership with Alex Salmond, her predecessor, Ms Sturgeon dominated her party, and Scotland, for the best part of two decades. At times the cause of independence to which she had dedicated her adult life seemed almost unstoppable. Mr Yousaf will struggle to emulate her control of the SNP, or to recapture that sense of momentum.

Mr Yousaf enjoyed Ms Sturgeon’s thinly disguised endorsement, and the SNP has a reputation for cohesion and unity. Given all that, he secured a strikingly narrow share of the vote among party members. In 2019 the SNP’s membership stood at 125,000, its ranks swelled by the independence referendum of 2014 and Scots’ anger at the turmoil of Brexit. By 2023 that had shrunk to 72,186, of whom just over 50,000 voted; Mr Yousaf received a total of 52% after two rounds of voting.

That would be a narrow margin of victory in any circumstances. It is particularly modest given the deficiencies of Mr Yousaf’s rivals. Kate Forbes, the finance minister, is an evangelical Christian who opposes same-sex marriage and gender self-identification in a party that thinks of itself as more socially progressive than England. Ash Regan, a former community-safety minister, advocates independence with a fundamentalism that borders on the eccentric.

In the end the blessing of Ms Sturgeon proved to be mixed. As the “continuity” candidate Mr Yousaf became a lightning rod for disaffection with the SNP’s domestic record after 16 years in power. He became a member of Scotland’s devolved parliament in 2011, at the age of 26, and rose quickly. But a spell as transport minister coincided with criticism of a struggling rail network; as health secretary, he struggled to tame the backlogs that followed the covid-19 pandemic. Critics unkindly call him Humza Useless. Polling by YouGov finds that all three candidates are considered worse than Ms Sturgeon by both the Scottish public at large, and by voters who plumped for independence in the 2014 referendum. Mr Yousaf performs worst of all.

His first task will be to reunite the party after a fractious contest. Mr Yousaf indicated that Ms Forbes and Ms Regan will be given jobs in his cabinet. But the campaign will leave scars. Ms Forbes warned that “more of the same” would be an “acceptance of mediocrity”. Addressing Mr Yousaf in one debate, she adopted a critique previously made only by the SNP’s enemies: “You were a transport minister and the trains were never on time, when you were justice secretary the police were stretched to breaking-point, and now as health minister we’ve got record high waiting times.” Revelations over the party’s plummeting membership recently helped bring about the resignation of Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive and Ms Sturgeon’s husband. Michael Russell, the party’s president, declared it all a “tremendous mess”.

The British government hopes Ms Sturgeon’s departure will allow for a reset of relations after years of confrontation over the constitution. During the campaign Mr Yousaf acknowledged that the sustained majority that is a prerequisite for Scottish independence does not exist. In his acceptance speech he recognised that Scots’ priorities are health care and the effects of inflation. Mr Yousaf said that those “who don’t yet share the passion I do for independence” would be won round by a competent government.

Yet Mr Yousaf did not ease off on talk of separation in his victory address. “What unites is our shared goal of delivering independence,” he said. “My solemn commitment to you is that I will kickstart our grassroots, civic-led movement and ensure our drive for independence is in fifth gear,” he said.

Unity for the SNP, in other words, is still likely to come at the price of inflaming the division on the constitution that splits Scotland in two. And here Mr Yousaf runs into the same obstacle that was the proximate cause of Ms Sturgeon’s downfall: a lack of options to achieve independence without the permission of the British government that is required by law. Even at Ms Sturgeon’s prime, such requests were easy enough for Westminster to resist. Saying no to Mr Yousaf, with his chequered domestic record and an unconvincing leadership victory, will be easier still. ■