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The Economist
The Economist
29 Oct 2024


NextImg:How wrong could America’s pollsters be?
United States | Campaign calculus: miss calculation

How wrong could America’s pollsters be?

Gamblers are a lot more confident that Donald Trump will win 

DESPITE POLLS being in essence tied, gamblers betting on the outcome of America’s presidential election are increasingly confident that Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, will win. Polymarket, a prediction market that has seen over $2.6bn traded on the election, gives him a two-in-three chance. Bettors are in effect gambling that polls are underestimating him for the third time in a row.

Jill-Stein-Abandon-Harris-Dearborn-Michigan

War is not the only reason some Muslims are ditching the Democrats

In Michigan, where Kamala Harris leads by less than a percentage point, it could be the difference


A handful of Trump supporters carry flags in front of the U.S. Supreme Court

Donald Trump could entrench a MAGA Supreme Court for a generation

Meet the leading contenders to replace Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito


The data hinted at racism among white doctors. Then scholars looked again

Science that fits the zeitgeist sometimes does not fit the data

Susie Wiles, the unassuming operative powering Donald Trump’s campaign

A low-key manager, she could land a high-flying job

Checks and Balance: The 50-year plan

Also: How to read America’s early-voting numbers