How to read America’s early-voting numbers
Turnout is off to a roaring start but Republicans have made gains with initial ballot returns
FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast gives Mr Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points in the past week (see chart). Although the race remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction. The shift in our model reflects a steady narrowing of Ms Harris’s lead in national polls during the past month. State-specific polls published in the past week confirm that Mr Trump’s position has strengthened slightly in the plausibly decisive states.
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