ON DECEMBER 4th James Cleverly, the home secretary, said immigration into Britain was “far too high” and that he would cut net migration (immigration minus emigration) by 300,000 people. From next spring those hoping to get a work visa will have to earn at least £38,700 ($48,800) a year, up from £26,200; visa exemptions for sectors where there are labour shortages will be reviewed; and the rules on bringing in foreign spouses and dependents will be tightened.

When the Conservatives came to power in 2010 they promised to reduce net migration to below 100,000 a year. Since the Brexit vote in 2016, there has been much talk of “taking back control” of Britain’s borders. The 2019 Tory manifesto pledged a reduction in immigration, though it did not specify a number. Yet immigration has continued to climb. The latest official figures, published by the Office for National Statistics (ons) on November 23rd, showed a net 672,000 people moving to Britain in the year to June. More problematically, the figures for the full year of 2022 were revised up from 606,000 to 745,000—a record high. The government has had a lot of bad immigration news lately: on November 15th the Supreme Court ruled its cherished scheme to fly asylum-seekers to Rwanda was unlawful.

Immigration matters to voters. According to polling from YouGov, a research firm, 40% of Britons consider immigration and asylum among the most important issues facing the country, up from under 20% in early 2021. It now ranks just below the economy and the state of the National Health Service in the public’s concerns. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, and Mr Cleverly have been under rising pressure from the right of their own party, much of the popular press and a large block of voters to act tough.

Business has not welcomed the new measures. Although the number of unfilled job vacancies has fallen over the past year, it remains high at 957,000 according to the ons. Firms continue to report recruitment difficulties. The latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (obr), the government’s fiscal watchdog, released alongside the autumn statement on November 22nd assumed inward migration would remain elevated to help ease labour-supply pressures. Whilst most of the Home Office’s estimated 300,000 will reduce the number of dependents and students rather than workers it will tighten the labour market at the margins.

Businesses also fear that the higher salary requirements for a work visa will give an advantage to firms in London and the south-east of England. The £38,700 is 13% below the median full-time salary in the capital but 17% above the median earnings in the north-west and 22% higher than in the East Midlands. The abrupt shift in policy has also raised corporate eyebrows, with bosses comparing it to recent U-turns on the net-zero transition and the High Speed 2 rail network. A government that talks up the importance of long-term stability is increasingly making short-sighted and politically-driven changes.

Health and social care, which have been major drivers of recent immigration for work reasons (see chart), are exempt from the new salary rules. Both sectors have faced especially acute recruitment challenges. Yet new rules mean workers will not be able to bring dependents. The home office says that 101,000 health and care visas were issued in the year to September with an estimated 120,000 visas granted to those workers’ dependents. This change will certainly lower net migration. It will also make it more difficult to attract workers to Britain.

Mr Cleverly also announced that the government will make it harder for Britons to get a visa for family members. The minimum income required to bring a foreign spouse into the country will rise from £18,600 to £38,700. Under the old threshold more than nine in ten Britons in full-time work could do this; under the new rules more than half will not be able to. Marrying someone from overseas will be especially tricky for the poor, the young and those outside the south-east.

That has angered even some champions of a tougher line on migration. The new rules on dependents for health and social-care workers will make recruitment in hard-pressed sectors tougher. The overall package is likely to reduce economic growth. Such problems will take time to be felt, however. Mr Cleverly, who spent December 5th in Rwanda signing a new treaty on the failed asylum plan, may be happy enough with the headlines his crackdown has generated. Longer-term, his plan will be costly. But that will be a problem for his successor. ■