JOE BIDEN’S job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have under-performed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.

These numbers suggest that the race is hardly a “toss-up”. True, the five months remaining before the vote give Mr Biden time to make up ground, and the polls may underestimate his true support. But it is also possible that his deficit could widen, and that the candidate to benefit from any polling error could be Donald Trump.