


Europe finds €50bn for Ukraine, and a way around Viktor Orban
A summit in Brussels rekindles European unity
IT OFTEN TAKES summits lasting well into the night for the EU’s 27 national leaders to agree to anything. On February 1st it took just an hour or so to approve €50bn ($54bn) in aid for Ukraine, as part of an update to the bloc’s budget. The swiftly agreed deal is a welcome fillip for authorities in Kyiv that desperately need the money, though it will be spread out over the next four years. Its unexpectedly smooth approval also exposes the limits of the influence wielded by Viktor Orban, the autocratic Hungarian prime minister who had promised to block further EU support for Ukraine.
Ukraine faces a budget shortfall of over $40bn this year, thanks to sky-high military spending and war-depressed tax revenues. Support from America would have helped, but has fallen prey to partisan squabbling—making support from the EU all the more crucial. The bloc’s leaders, including Emmanuel Macron of France and Olaf Scholz of Germany, had hoped to secure agreement on the aid to Ukraine at a summit in December. But Mr Orban vetoed it (though he did allow Ukraine to open formal talks to become an EU member one day).
The run-up to this week’s summit had suggested more gridlock. Mr Orban is ever-willing to see the world from Russia’s perspective, and at daggers drawn with the EU’s institutions in Brussels. They have cut off tens of billions of euros in EU spending over concerns Hungary is violating rule-of-law obligations, such as hobbling the judiciary and doing too little to combat corruption. Wielding threats of vetoes is one way for the long-standing Hungarian leader to command the spotlight, helping wring concessions out of the EU.
But patience from Hungary’s fellow Europeans seems to have run out. As the summit approached national diplomats hinted at reprisals against Hungary if it continued to hold up agreement on the Ukraine funding package. Some talked up the possibility of depriving Hungary of its vote in EU bodies, a fiddly procedure that would need all 26 other countries to agree. Failing that, many pointed to how dependent the Hungarian economy is on EU transfers, which represent 3-4% of its GDP. The chatter around economic reprisals was taken seriously enough to dent the Hungarian forint.
Is that why Mr Orban folded? In truth, nobody knows. Merely having inconvenienced 26 other EU leaders to indulge his cantankerousness—and hogging the spotlight for another week—was probably enough for his purposes. After a breakfast with Messrs Scholz and Macron, and dinner with Giorgia Meloni of Italy on January 31st, Mr Orban swiftly relented. He seems to have received nothing of substance in return.
If Mr Orban is the big loser of the summit, Ukraine emerges as its main winner. Once the European Parliament rubber-stamps the deal the promised €50bn will start to flow in a matter of weeks, averting a budget crisis. Europeans, for their part, averted being held hostage once again by one of their own. At least for now, unity in the EU prevails. ■

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