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Oct 13, 2025 |
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Special report | The ways out that aren’t
Economic growth is unlikely to prevent fiscal crisis
Immigration only defers the problem. Higher productivity means higher interest rates
|7 min read
It is a favourite trick of politicians to promise economic growth to flatter their budget forecasts. Debt is only one-half of the debt-to-GDP ratio; increasing output can be as good as shrinking what you owe. In the mid-20th century, the catch-up of wartorn economies, a baby boom, women’s entry into the workforce and the expansion of secondary education meant growth contributed to the rich world paying off its debts from the second world war). Emerging economies enjoying catch-up or commodities windfalls have at times grown their way out of debt rather than restructuring it or inflating it away.