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The Economist
The Economist
22 Jul 2024


NextImg:Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here’s what the polls say
United States | The numbers game

Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here’s what the polls say

How the Democrats’ likely candidate changes the race

AS SOON AS Joe Biden announced that he would no longer seek re-election, attention turned to his replacement. Mr Biden endorsed Kamala Harris, his vice-president and running-mate, and dozens of Democratic lawmakers and governors have followed suit. With the groundswell of establishment support behind her, she is likely to be chosen as the nominee at the Democratic convention next month.

It is highly likely that switching from Mr Biden to Ms Harris improves Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House. For most of his presidency, Mr Biden’s poll numbers have exceeded hers. Since his disastrous debate on June 27th, however, that gap has vanished. In polls taken before the debate, Mr Trump led Mr Biden by a margin of 45% to 44%, whereas he beat Ms Harris in a hypothetical race by 48% to 42%. Since then, she has cut this deficit to 48% to 45%, roughly matching Mr Biden’s shortfall. A recent survey by YouGov found that Ms Harris’s net favourability rating was minus 15 points, worse than Mr Trump’s, at minus 10, but better than Mr Biden’s, which was minus 20.

Kamala Harris lacks charisma and time

But, if nominated, that does not rule out her defeating Donald Trump

Joe Biden quits the race, at last. What’s next?

The embattled president has endorsed Kamala Harris, his vice-president, as his successor


Usha Vance, wife of Donald Trump’s VP pick, was once a Democrat

The lawyer, whose parents are Indian immigrants, seems to prioritise ambition


Kamala Harris lacks charisma and time

But, if nominated, that does not rule out her defeating Donald Trump

Joe Biden quits the race, at last. What’s next?

The embattled president has endorsed Kamala Harris, his vice-president, as his successor


Usha Vance, wife of Donald Trump’s VP pick, was once a Democrat

The lawyer, whose parents are Indian immigrants, seems to prioritise ambition


Donald Trump tries to be both unifier and pugilist in his convention speech

The candidate thrills his party but mixes his message

Why MAGA is the future, not just present, of the GOP

The selection of J.D. Vance means that Donald Trump’s influence may linger

Calling Donald Trump a threat to the rule of law has backfired

It strengthened him politically and led to constitutional protections for presidents, not citizens