since October 7th, when Hamas launched its attacks on Israel, the voting patterns of British Muslims have attracted close attention. This group—who account for 6% of Britain’s population—have been reliable supporters of the Labour Party in recent elections. Israel’s devastating retaliatory war in Gaza, and the refusal of Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, to call unequivocally for an immediate ceasefire, have caused rifts within the parliamentary party and cast doubt on Muslim voters’ support.

In a by-election held in Rochdale, in north-west England, on February 29th, George Galloway, a former Labour politician whose views are a cocktail of virulent anti-Israeli rhetoric, sympathy for Vladimir Putin and social conservatism, was declared the winner. He won by targeting the constituency’s significant Muslim vote with an explicitly pro-Palestine campaign. “Keir Starmer, this is for Gaza,” he declared in his victory speech. The Rochdale vote is sui generis: Labour fell from first to fourth place after it suspended its own candidate for making antisemitic comments. But the bigger question of how much Muslim support Labour has forfeited over the war in Gaza remains.

Using survey data from WeThink, a polling firm, The Economist has analysed the voting intentions of British Muslims since the start of 2023. Although the survey does not explicitly ask for respondents’ religion, it is possible to infer it from data on ethnicity and geography. We find that although Labour retains a strong position among British Muslims, it appears to have lost a substantial amount of support since the outbreak of war in Gaza. From a high of around 75% in early 2023, around 65% of Muslims now support the party—a smaller share than the 79% estimated to have voted Labour at the 2019 general election. In contrast, Labour’s vote share among all other voters has barely budged since the Gaza war began (see chart).

The consequences of this sort of decline in support at the next general election would be limited, however, for two reasons. First, there is no clear beneficiary among the other parties. Our analysis shows that the gains from falling support for Labour are divided between the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and “Other”. This makes it less likely that Muslim voters will be pivotal in a substantial number of Labour-versus-Conservative marginal seats. Mr Galloway’s victory suggests that independent or third-party candidates may be best placed to win over Muslim voters. But independent candidates also tend to do better in by-elections than general elections, which have higher turnout and a sharper focus on domestic politics.

Second, the geography of the next election will insulate Labour from declining support among British Muslims. There are 38 constituencies in Britain, Rochdale among them, where over a fifth of residents are Muslim, and these tend to be held comfortably by Labour in general elections. Muslims account for more than 20% of the population in only one of the 100 seats highest on Labour’s target list in England and Wales; in only 14 is their share greater than 10%.

The war in Gaza is still a big party-management headache for Sir Keir. Of the 38 constituencies with a Muslim population of over a fifth, 33 are currently represented by Labour. It was these MPs who were most likely to break with the party line in November by voting for a ceasefire motion put forward by the Scottish National Party. And although our data show tentative signs of a recovery in Labour support among British Muslims since December, events in the Middle East could change the picture again (and further rile the many non-Muslim Labour activists who care about this issue). But its impact on the next election is likely to be smaller than Mr Galloway’s headline-grabbing victory suggests.■