Local elections tend to be countercyclical: parties gain ground locally when they are in opposition nationally, and lose it when in office. By early evening on May 5th it was clear that Mr Sunak’s party was taking a beating. With 222 of 230 councils declared, the Conservatives had lost 1,038 councillors, surpassing the gloomier end of the party’s expectations. Labour, meanwhile, had gained 517 councillors and taken control of 21 councils, including areas that will be crucial in the next general election, such as Blackpool, Dover, Middlesbrough and Swindon. Labour has now overtaken the Tories as the largest party of local government, a position it last held between 1991 and 2002 (see chart).

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, declared that his party was on course for a governing majority at the next general election. In truth, that is uncertain. Extrapolating what local elections in parts of England mean for a national ballot is difficult. Turnout in local votes tends to be lower and Labour tends to underperform its national polling, whereas the Liberal Democrats, a smaller opposition party, often overperform. A projection by Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University for the BBC suggested that the local-election results equated to a national vote share for Labour of 35%; for the Conservatives of 26%; the Lib Dems, 20%; and others, 19%. That, said Sir John, would produce a hung parliament in a general election, with Labour winning 312 seats, 14 short of an overall majority.

Labour says that its governing majority would depend on its performance in Scotland, where it hopes to make major gains at the expense of the Scottish National Party, and which sat out this round of local elections. Perhaps. But Philip Cowley of Queen Mary University of London notes that Labour’s performance in the local elections was weaker than those clocked up by the party and by the Tories in comparable votes a year before each regained power in 1997 and 2010 respectively. Labour’s lead is also much narrower than the 15-point advantage it has enjoyed in national opinion polls, let alone the 37 points granted by one survey in October, during Liz Truss’s brief administration.

That suggests that the Liberal Democrats’ performance may be critical at the next general election. As Labour recovers ground in areas that voted for Brexit in 2016 and that are home to fewer graduates, the Lib Dems continue to advance in relatively prosperous, Remain-leaning towns in southern England. Labour and the Lib Dems are direct competitors in very few seats, and Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dems’ leader, has declined to rule out a coalition with Sir Keir in the event of a hung parliament. The electoral coalition assembled by Boris Johnson in 2019, of northern Leave voters and southern Remainers, is being pulled apart, notes Robert Ford of the University of Manchester.