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Even before Vladimir Putin’s invasion in 2022, Washington poured billions into Ukraine with two goals: arming it against Russia and reforming its corrupt institutions. Kiev’s parliament dealt a blow to the latter project on Tuesday. Lawmakers placed Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) under the direct control of the Prosecutor General’s Office, itself a political instrument of President Volodymyr Zelensky. The same day, Zelensky duly signed the bill into law.
Amid public outcry, Zelensky seemed to reverse course. In a video address, the Ukrainian leader said on Wednesday that he’d submit a new bill to the parliament that would restore the independence of the agencies. But as Christopher Miller of the Financial Times notes, “It remains unclear how far the new bill will go towards restoring full independence.”
Whatever happens next, this week’s events should set off alarms for Ukraine’s Western backers. For MAGA Republicans, long skeptical of blank checks for Kiev, Zelensky’s move on Tuesday was vindication, exposing the fiction that Ukraine has “transformed” into a liberal democracy. Whether or not you agree, the episode raises urgent questions: Will the U.S.-led West keep funding a government that seeks to dismantle anti-corruption oversight? And what does Ukraine’s apparent democratic backsliding, if it continues, mean for Ukraine’s pro-Western aspirations—or for its failing frontline?
NABU and SAPO were the crown jewels of reforms implemented after the Maidan Revolution in 2014. They were staffed with Western-vetted prosecutors and designed to insulate anti-graft efforts from political meddling. Their work became a key justification for U.S. aid. Yet on Tuesday, Zelensky folded them into the state apparatus, effectively ending their independence.
His government claimed this was a wartime necessity, a temporary consolidation to streamline governance and stamp out alleged Russian moles. Skeptics saw a power grab. Hundreds protested in Kiev, Odessa, and Lviv—the first large-scale demonstrations since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The Russian dissident journalist Leonid Ragozin (no Kremlin ally) noted on X, with bitter irony, “the complete Russian-styled takeover of Ukraine’s power vertical.” Ragozin traces this shift all the way back to 2014, when the revolution’s anti-corruption agenda was hijacked by security elites and radical ethnic nationalists single-mindedly focused on confronting Russia, creating an ideal environment for graft. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko dismissed the protests as the work of “some social groups” who exaggerate corruption.
The European Union saw things differently. Its enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, warned that independent anti-corruption bodies are essential for Ukraine’s membership bid —calling their dismantling a “[serious] concern.” G7 ambassadors echoed the sentiment.
The Tuesday move, if it isn’t fully reversed, is likely to erect more hurdles on Ukraine’s path to EU accession—which was already riddled with obstacles. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week that Ukraine won’t join the EU before the war with Russia is over, and even after that, it will have to rebuild to integrate into the bloc, which will take many more years.
But will harsh EU words translate into punitive action? Zelensky seems to feel pressure from street protests and some European leaders, but he may believe that the EU won’t cut financial aid, restrict weapons supplies, or introduce personal sanctions against Ukraine’s top leadership for fear it would weaken Ukraine militarily and embolden critics of continued support. In line with this thinking, statements from ambassadors, media, or individual officials can simply be ignored. Kiev can also try to placate Brussels with promises to “restore everything after the war.”
The situation could prove very different with the U.S., however. President Donald Trump may care little about the fate of NABU or SAPO. But many in his circle and among MAGA Republicans despise Zelensky and believe the U.S. should distance itself from the war—keeping it “Biden’s war” rather than letting it become “Trump’s war.” They will use the corruption-related concerns and protests against Zelensky as a leverage to push for the U.S. decoupling from Ukraine.
Indeed, some MAGA voices are already doing just that. Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-GA), who has emerged as a principled Republican voice against endless wars, praised the protests in Kiev against the “dictator” Zelensky and called for an end to American funding.
Simultaneously, Zelensky’s move may have alienated key allies in Washington, such as the hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), author of a plan to hit Russia and its trade partners with massive new sanctions. Incidentally, the Ukraine corruption story broke just as the EU’s commissioner for defense and space, Andrius Kubilius (another notable Russia hawk) was in Washington making the case for more American support for Ukraine and meeting with Graham, among others. Defending more aid for Ukraine must have been a lot more awkward than usual as a result.
If Trump concludes that U.S. aid has been embezzled, the backlash could be swift and severe. He may yet push Zelensky to accept Russian terms for peace negotiations. The timing couldn’t be worse. As Ukraine’s forces retreat under slow but relentless Russian pressure, the political fallout in Washington may be perilous for Zelensky. With many Republicans already opposed to Ukraine aid, the attempt to erode anti-corruption safeguards may give them fresh ammunition, which pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats could find difficult to counter.
Zelensky has taken a huge gamble. If it backfires, he may have further undermined his country’s already precarious position at the frontlines—and his own political future. Even worse, from Ukraine’s perspective, is that Zelensky’s Tuesday move may shift the conversation from “how to save Ukraine” to whether it’s worth saving in its current form at all. He would be wise to restore full independence to the anti-corruption agencies and put the episode behind him.