In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, New York and California are expected to play a pivotal role with at least 13 competitive races between the two states. The catch is that both states could be slow to report final results, especially in close races.
In New York, at least six House races are looking highly competitive in the state’s First and Fourth Districts on Long Island, and in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Districts upstate. New York's Third District, which spans Long Island and a portion of Queens, could also be competitive if Republicans outperform expectations.
Democrats are looking to retake seats they lost in 2022, and they have dedicated significant resources and the attention of party leadership, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-NY, barnstorming the state last week.
Republicans are attempting to hold onto gains they posted in 2022, a challenge given New York's Democratic tilt and the high turnout environment of a presidential election. They have, however, increased their support relative to previous election cycles, especially in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., spent some of his final days on the campaign trail in the Empire State, looking to boost candidates in some of the most competitive races.
In New York's First District, GOP Rep. Nick LaLota is defending his Long Island seat against John Avalon, the Democratic challenger. In New York's Fourth, also on Long Island, GOP Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen are locked in a rematch of their 2022 race.
Upstate, in New York's 17th, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Democrat, is seeking to make a comeback against Rep. Mike Lawler, the incumbent Republican. In the 18th District, Rep. Pat Ryan, the sole swing district Democrat to hold on in 2022, is attempting to fend off Republican challenger Allison Esposito.
In New York's sprawling 19th District, GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley are in a rematch in one of the closest races in the country. And in New York's 22nd District, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams is defending his Syracuse-area district against Democrat John Mannion.
In California, Democrats are pushing to retake five seats they’ve lost to Republicans since 2020 — four in 2020 and another in 2022 — which could prove decisive for control of the House.
These two states alone could determine which party leads the lower chamber, though there are a scattered collection of swing districts outside of them.
While statewide races in New York are typically called fairly early in the night, sometimes just shortly after polls close at 9 p.m., officials this year have declined to specify when they expect full results.
We need your help to stay independent
New York also accepts mail ballots as late as a week after Election Day as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. This means that the statewide Senate and presidential elections will likely be called early in the night, but the marquee House races could take days or even a week or so to call.
California is known for its lengthy ballot-counting procedure, and it could take days or weeks to learn who won close House races or control of the House.
Read more
about Election Day 2024