COLUMBUS, Ohio — Polls closed in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, beginning the tense wait for results in what has shaped up to be the most competitive Senate race of the 2024 election. While the Buckeye State is no longer a swing state or presidential bellwether — voters chose Trump by wide margins in 2016 and 2020 — its contentious Senate race is key to Democrats' fight to retain their already razor-thin majority in the upper chamber.

Cleveland businessman and Republican political newcomer Bernie Moreno is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking a fourth term. The Cook Political Report has rated the contest a toss-up for weeks, with recent polls showing slim leads for both candidates that fall within the roughly 3% margin of error.

As of Tuesday afternoon, polling averages showed Moreno had taken a marginal lead in the race. Moreno led by just 0.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but left a wider trail of 1.7 points and 2 points in the RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ averages, respectively. However, the RacetotheWH polling average placed Brown just ahead of Moreno by 0.4 points.

In the campaigns' final week, Trump-backed Moreno toured the state in a bright red bus joined by Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. At stops, Moreno called for the deportation of undocumented immigrants and defended himself against lawsuits from former employees who accused him of failing to pay overtime, according to The Columbus Dispatch. 

The progressive Brown spent the end of his campaign courting Black voters in Columbus and visiting a union hall in Akron, amid other events throughout the state. Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., and former President Bill Clinton also stumped for their party's candidate at rallies in downtown Mount Vernon and Cleveland, respectively. 

Meanwhile, Ohioans fielded a final barrage of attack ads accusing Brown of being too liberal for Ohio, criticizing Moreno for his stance on abortion and occasionally spreading misinformation in what has become the nation's most expensive congressional race.

Democrats' bid to maintain control of the Senate likely hinges on Brown's ability to retain his seat. With additional toss-up races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and a potential loss in Montana — the party is at a disadvantage. If Democrats hold onto 50 Senate seats as they do now, they would also need a win from Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., who as vice president would serve as the deciding 51st Senate vote, to claim the majority.

Early voting in Ohio ended Sunday after beginning Oct. 8, with approximately a third of the state's 8.1 million registered voters casting an early ballot either in-person or by mail, according to data from the secretary of state. Secretary of State Frank LaRose told the Ohio Statehouse News Bureau that the state could be on track to surpass its voter turnout record if Election Day turnout is high. 

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