President Trump seems to be moving from win to win in the last few weeks, and now one major polling organization's results are reflecting that. Only this morning, we saw an X post from Eric Daughtery of Florida's Voice news program, proclaiming President Trump's net job approval rating in 27 of 50 states, including several of the 2024 swing states.
That's an interesting set of numbers. Here are the Morning Consult key takeaways from their page:
Trump’s net approval rating is above water in 27 states: That’s up from 26 states in last month’s update and is due to a 1-percentage-point increase to Trump’s net approval rating in Arizona, where previously voters were evenly split on his job performance. Trump also has a positive net approval rating in three other 2024 swing states: Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
Sentiment remains in the red in key 2025 states: Trump is underwater in two states set to host big gubernatorial races this fall. In Virginia, 45% of voters now approve of his job performance, down from 46% last month, while 52% disapprove, unchanged over that time frame. And in New Jersey, 44% approve of Trump, while 53% disapprove, which is unchanged from our last update.
Take a look at the map:
In an abundance of caution, I assigned Michigan and New Mexico to the Democrats, making this a worst-case scenario based on this poll.
Note that the results are up (by one state) since last month's run of this same survey. If we plug this morning's result into an electoral vote map, we get a GOP win, despite losing 2024 swing states Wisconsin and Michigan. That's a 287-251 GOP win. So why does this matter, especially since the 2028 election is well over three years away, and President Trump can't run again?
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Well, here's why, and I'm going to tell you.
First, I like to look at trends. The Morning Consult polls have been trending, slowly, towards Trump. There's not a lot of movement, but it's not zero, either.
Second, whoever does end up as the Republican candidate for president in 2028 will be running in large part on President Trump's record and on his policies, especially if those policies deliver the promised result. If the nominee is JD Vance, he will be much more tied to the Trump administration.
Third and finally, most polls ignore or obfuscate how we elect presidents, not by a popular vote by in a state-by-state series of 51 separate elections (the District of Columbia counts, too), which are then used to assign electors, who meet in what is colloquially called the "Electoral College." That's because we are a constitutional republic, not a democracy. A state-by-state poll more accurately describes who is leaning towards that victory, although, yes, it's a long, long way off yet.
So, while many of the legacy media outlets and the left (but I repeat myself) ballyhoo what they claim are President Trump's cratering poll numbers and try to bury him under "reporting" that is overwhelmingly negative, polls like this give a better idea of what's going on. This one tells us that, after six months in office, if there were an election today, President Trump would win again. Not an overwhelming win, but a win.
And, no, we're not tired of winning yet.
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