The Trump Department of War is drawing up plans for kinetic operations against drug traffickers inside Venezuela, according to a thinly sourced NBC News story. Those strikes could begin in a "matter of weeks." The strikes would be primarily carried out by drones and would target drug cartel members and leadership, as well as drug labs.

Putting aside the brittleness of the story, there are some considerations that move it from the "totally freakin unlikely" category to "slightly plausible." First, a disclaimer. The U.S. military has plans for just about any contingency. This dates back to at least the 1930s, when the U.S. developed a series of color-coded war plans that envisioned conflicts with Great Britain, Australia, and China, as well as with Germany and Japan. This kind of plan is useful. For instance, OPLAN 1002 envisioned countering a Soviet strike into central Iran. Norman Schwartzkopf took the same basic plan as a starting point for the First Gulf War because the logistics were essentially the same. A war plan focused on Venezuelan cartels would work equally well for Colombian, Central American, or Mexican cartels. So just because a plan is being developed, it doesn't follow that anything else will happen.

The Plus Factors

President Trump wantsNicolás Maduro gone. In his UN speech, this is what Trump had to say: "MS-13 and Tren de Aragua. Tren de Aragua is from Venezuela, by the way. Such organizations torture, maim, mutilate and murder with impunity. They're the enemies of all humanity. For this reason, we've recently begun using the supreme power of the United States military to destroy Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks led by Nicolas Maduro to every terrorist thug smuggling poisonous drugs into the United States of America." 

The FBI has labeled Tren de Aragua as an arm of the Venezuelan government, and the U.S. has placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro.

In August, Trump signed a still-secret order authorizing the use of military force against drug smugglers. Since then, Trump has authorized the sinking of at least four Venezuelan drug-running ships.

READ

Shots Fired! The US Military Sinks a Venezuelan Drug Runner (Updated) – RedState

Watch As US Forces Delete a Venezuelan Drug-Trafficking Boat – RedState

Watch: Venezuelan Drug Boats - and Then There Were Four – RedState

The new National Defense Strategy is reportedly a very inward-looking document, focusing on homeland and hemispheric defense to the exclusion of Europe and China. A Maduro government playing footsie with Russia and China is directly opposed to that strategy.

There has been a buildup of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean over the last two months; see Trump Sends the Navy, Marines Down the Venezuelan Coast - Here's Why – RedState. This deployment includes "[t]he Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group — including the U.S.S. San Antonio, the U.S.S. Iwo Jima and the U.S.S. Fort Lauderdale, carrying 4,500 service members, sailors — has been steaming near Puerto Rico. So has the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, with 2,200 Marines." 

Four Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided-missile destroyers have recently joined that force.

Also heading south are Special Operations Forces:

This is quite possibly the 2d Ranger Battalion from Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington.

If a decision were made to force an entry into Venezuela, then a Ranger Battalion would be the logical choice to seize an airfield, as was done in Grenada and Panama. There are definitely enough aircraft moving to the region to support such an operation.

Also spotted is this item:

This would indicate the presence of at least a SEAL platoon.

The Venezuelans are taking the threat seriously.

So forces are in position to take out anything the TdA has and thoroughly thump whatever forces Venezuela might muster.

But it is a huge leap from "can" to "will."

I think Trump is placing psychological pressure on Maduro, and that seems to be working on a superficial level.

No one believes he's changed, even if they think he might throw his TdA homies under the bus.

Earlier this month Maduro sent a letter to Trump about opening a dialogue, according to a social media post by the Venezuelan government. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump received the letter but condemned it.

“Frankly, I think there were a lot of lies that were repeated by Maduro in that letter, and the administration’s position on Venezuela has not changed,” Leavitt said at a White House press briefing Monday. “We view the Maduro regime as illegitimate, and the president has clearly shown that he’s willing to use any and all means necessary to stop the illegal trafficking of deadly drugs from the Venezuelan regime into the United States of America.”

The real prize is prying Venezuela's elites away from Maduro and letting them do the heavy lifting of replacing him. Ending the "temporary protected status" of 600,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. obviously figures into this scheme; see Despite Supreme Court Stay, Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Revoking TPS for Thousands of Venezuelans – RedState. There is no better way to destabilize Maduro than a massive influx of very pissed off expatriates who aren't happy with Maduro's rule.

Personally, and I stand ready to be proven wrong on this, I don't think military strikes are in the cards. Trump won the election by promising to end "forever wars," not by starting them. Absent a full-scale invasion of Venezuela and the ensuing insurgency, there is no way to suppress the TdA, as they are basically part of the regime. I don't believe there is the Congressional or domestic political support to do that. It could happen, but I'd put the likelihood as extremely low.

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