Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!
I thought I was going to focus a little less on the U.S. House "strategery" that has been occurring, leading up to the 2026 mid-term elections, but I was wrong. Big things keep happening there and forcing me to revisit these new partisan machinations.
The most recent change – President Trump has dramatically announced:
I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
READ MORE: Trump Orders a New Census Prepared, and Democrats Are Already Flipping Out
The census, as we all should know, is normally conducted every decade. It determines how many U.S. House districts each state will get and, thus, the numbers for the Electoral College. In 2024, the counting of illegal aliens gave Democrats an extra 14 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as the bonus vote in the Electoral College. This is because most of those who enter the U.S., both legally and illegally, head to heavily Democrat-controlled cities. Even if these aliens aren’t allowed to vote in elections, if the districts are apportioned based on where they reside, then the Democrats will benefit from them being there and boosting the population. This is why many Democrat-leaning districts in big cities consistently have poor turnout in elections — because the population includes large numbers of illegal aliens who can’t vote.
If the president orders the Department of Commerce to redo the census, and the Democrats are unable to block this from occurring, then the GOP could cancel the extra 14-seat Democrat bonus in the House.
And that is not the only thing that is happening. The planned GOP re-redistricting in states is multiplying. In addition to Texas and Ohio, the GOP may spread its efforts to Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and even Nebraska. Other, less likely, possibilities are Kansas, Kentucky, and New Hampshire.
READ MORE: Ron DeSantis Secures Total Victory Over Democrats in Redistricting Fight, As 2026 Prospects Improve
The news coming from Nebraska, a 60 percent Trump and heavily Republican state, is especially surprising. The one chamber in the Nebraska legislature is officially non-partisan, which allows Democrats to punch above their weight in it, and also allows moderate Republicans – who largely position themselves as "above" partisan issues – to win more than their usual share of seats in the legislature. So, this makes it harder for the GOP partisans in Nebraska to push the "squishy" state legislature to greatly modify the current districts where the Democrats have a majority in the 2nd district and are more competitive than they should be in the 1st district. Especially since, in 2024, the (now-retiring) moderate Republican Don Bacon was whispered to not want his 2nd district to be made more Republican, which could have endangered him in the Republican primary. So, it seemed there was little that could be done to correct things from a Republican perspective. Now, it is possible that all three districts may become likely Republican.
The Democrats are also making their own serious push to re-redistrict California and New York. California Gov. Newsom, who has a presidential nomination to run for and faces the impediment of being a soon-to-be-out-of-office straight white male, has pushed for a special ballot question to allow California to re-redistrict, justifying it because of the evil Republicans and their evil gerrymandering schemes. (However, he strangely does not mention the heavily gerrymandered Democrat states of Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Oregon, and yes, even California.) But even assuming that the California Democrats are able to persuade the Democrat-leaning voting public to stick it to the GOP (again!), within the restricted time constraints, the state is already redistricted, and new lines trying to squeeze out more D seats could lead to a "dummymander."
A dummymander can be a danger to both parties who re-redistrict to incredibly disproportionate lengths. It is when one party redistricts too much, and a bad political cycle causes the other party to win a disproportionately large number of seats because too many seats were too competitive. This happened in 2006 in my home state of Pennsylvania, where the GOP edge shifted from 12 Republicans/ 7 Democrats to 11 Democrats/ 8 Republicans after the disastrous 2006 midterm election. California, New York, Ohio, and Texas could all see that happen (they may become too disproportionate for the majority party. For example, the new Texas district lines rely on Hispanics continuing to shift GOP, as they have in 2022 and 2024, and not reverting back to their 2020 levels of support.
As a partisan, I love these partisan machinations. But I understand that many others don’t. Good government types, moderates, and non-partisans tend to be turned off by the redistricting wars and partisan gerrymandering. In the interest of those people, there are some ways to legally block this type of partisan game playing. U.S. Reps. Kevin Kiley (CA) and Mike Lawler (NY), two endangered Republicans, have already sponsored (separate) legislation that would block states from gerrymandering. (Both are worried that their districts may be sliced and diced to defeat them.) But there are other possibilities as well. The House does not have to be divided into districts. It could elect all members in statewide votes, as was done in some states prior to 1967, if a federal law is repealed. For those wanting to avoid heavily partisan states from having one party dominate, there are tweaks to the rules that could allow for some minority party representation. Also, legislation could force the state to create geographically compact districts, or to keep to county and city lines, which makes gerrymanders tougher to set up. Or independent commissions could be installed; but keep in mind that many of these are already gamed by the majority party – I see you, California!
So, signing off on this gerrymandering conversation again. But, I guess, based on the fast-moving events, we shall probably be revisiting this discussion next week – “same bat time, same bat channel.”
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