Despite my last write-up only being a month ago, the battle for the 2026 U.S. Senate has continued to accelerate.

President Trump is currently sitting at 45.4 percent approval to 50.9 percent disapproval at the RCP average.  (Which probably includes some anti-Trump biased polling.) This is basically unchanged from where it has been for a while, and there is still no indication that any sort of “blue wave” is building.  

However, there may be some danger of an economic downturn, as indicated by the stagnant August jobs report. But it is important not to jump to conclusions or exaggerate things, despite the constant desire of the MSM to do just that, when it could hurt Donald Trump. 

Of course, the Democrats continue to have their own problems – their politicians and committed partisans continue to move farther and farther to the left (see their support for Mamdani), making it harder and harder to appeal to non-leftist Democrats. And this empowers their doom loop.  

Read More: The Democrats Are Riding High in the U.S. Senate

The 2026 Mid-Term Results May Depend on the Character and the Strength of the Trump Realignment

Now, let’s turn to specific new news from the competitive races for the U.S. Senate:

There has been a Democrat push to entice former Rep. Mary Peltola, who served (almost) two terms, into the Senate race. Most recently, Ivan Moore, a Democrat pollster, polled the state to show that two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan held a narrow lead of 46.7 percent to 42.5 percent. Remember that Alaska has a screwed-up, unique ranked-choice general election ballot that was created to help renegade Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski win re-election and also provides a boost to the Democrats. However, I continue to believe Peltola would be foolish to run for Senate. Peltola should run for the open governorship, which as a non-federal race in red Alaska is much more winnable by a Democrat. Interestingly enough, there has also been news regarding the 2028 Senate race, where Sen. Murkowski is going to be challenged by the retiring Alaska Republican Governor, Mike Dunleavy.   

Rep. Jared Moskowitz has made the news twice recently – first by predicting statewide doom for his Democrat Party in Florida, and then by saying a possible Republican re-redistricting could force him to run for Senate. The latter is foolish; he should run for governor, for the reasons I mentioned above.

While Sen. Ossoff continues to stockpile money, $21 million so far, the three major Republicans in the primary race are having a competitive primary. Rep. Buddy Darden has dumped another $1 million into his campaign, on top of the $2 million he had earlier lent to it. He has also introduced a censure resolution for Muslim extremist Democrat Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who recently attended a terror supporting event in Michigan. This is always a positive for a GOP primary (and should be in the general as well). Meanwhile, Derek Dooley, the former coach who is the son of an even more famous coach, was endorsed by popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, which can be expected to generate plenty of campaign funds for him as well.  Interestingly enough, of the three candidates, the third, Rep. Mike Collins, still has the nominal edge in the primary.   

This race comes back on the board as the GOP got unlikely good news in this state, as the likely Republican nominee for Senate, former chair of the Illinois Republican Party and big-law lawyer Don Tracy, announced that he would lend $2 million to his campaign. Tracy is still a huge underdog to any one of the three major Democrats running here, but if he can fund his campaign himself, and develops into a good candidate, he could have a “puncher’s chance” in the general election. Meanwhile, of those three Democrats, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Rep. Robin Kelly, and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, Krishnamoorthi holds the edge, sitting on over $12 million – versus just $2 million and $1 million – and with a more moderate profile than the others, who might split their base. However, it is unclear how much money billionaire Democrat Gov. J.B. Pritzker is willing to use to boost his ticket mate Stratton.

There was some big news here, as incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced her retirement. But immediately after, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson declared and was quickly endorsed by President Trump and the entire GOP leadership. Hinson is a three-term member (one of four in the state) who has overperformed in her district and “is a strong fundraiser and seen as a rising star in the party,” who “reported $2.8 million in her campaign coffers earlier in the year.”  With the state of Iowa heavily Republican under Donald Trump, Hinson is the likely winner over any one of a number of little known Democrats.

There are only a bunch of nobodies running against long-time Sen. Susan Collins, who is the only Republican representing a state that is heavily Democrat. The only one of these nobodies who has attracted any attention is the Bernie Bros veteran Graham Platner, who has raised $1 million after his announcement. Platner is running on a platform of universal healthcare, and as a pacifist, especially against U.S. support of Israel. Meanwhile, Collins has a long history of winning tough races, is widely respected on both sides of the aisle, and has raised $2.4 million so far, with much more likely to come as the Chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Even in a Democrat state, it is very unlikely that Platner can beat Collins. The best bet for the Democrats continues to be retiring Maine Democrat Gov. Janet Mills, who has not yet made her decision. However, Mills herself has a major problem – voters tend to be reluctant to vote for elderly candidates seeking a first term in the U.S. Senate, because they want new Senators who can steadily accrue seniority. 

Republicans got some good news in this state, as a Sununu is indeed “seriously” considering a race for Senate. Unfortunately, it is not popular former Gov. Chris Sununu, but his less popular older brother John Sununu, who used to hold this exact Senate seat – and before that, he was a popular congressman – before being beaten by now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in the anti-GOP landslide of 2008. Currently, the Democrats have united around four-term Rep. Chris Pappas – who represents half the state – and has raised over $2 million for the race and is considered somewhat of a moderate. The current Republicans who are running are former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who also ran and narrowly lost in 2014 in NH, and state Sen. Dan Innis. Both current Republicans in the race are solidly trailing Pappas in the polling. Both John Sununu and Scott Brown would have the same major problem – it is rare for an elected senator to win back a Senate seat after losing re-election. However, of the three Republicans, John Sununu would probably be the best candidate, as: 1) he is most likely to be able to raise the money necessary, thanks to his connections and those of his family; 2) the popularity of his family name; and 3) his history of having won in the state before.  

Former three-term Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown made a big splash by announcing his comeback bid, but he is still the underdog against appointed Republican Sen. and former long-time minor statewide elected official Jon Husted. Emerson polling has Husted up 50 percent to 44 percent, in a state that Donald Trump won by almost double digits three times in a row. And as an incumbent, Husted is winning union support that Brown won before. While Brown will raise plenty of money, and will certainly end up with a respectable percentage on election day, he is going to need something more to upset Husted to win back a Senate seat after having been defeated before.

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