The attacks Israel carried out on Iran early Friday morning took out top generals and nuclear scientists and damaged nuclear research sites, but they did not destroy one key facility that holds thousands of centrifuges used to enrich uranium: Fordow.
It’s buried deep within a mountain and would be extremely difficult to demolish. Israel reportedly does not have the weapons or technology to do it on its own and would need U.S. help to obliterate it.
The big picture: Israel will require unforeseen tactical ingenuity or U.S. assistance to destroy Fordow, which is built into a mountain and deep underground. But if the facility remains intact and accessible, a nuclear program Israel is determined to "eliminate" could actually accelerate.
- "The entire operation... really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow," Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Fox News on Friday.
- That's why the Israeli government hopes the Trump administration ultimately decides to join Israel's operation.
According to one report, Israel’s attacks did not do significant damage to the site:
Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites have damaged some aboveground research facilities and infrastructure but do not appear to have eliminated the thousands of centrifuges, buried deep underground, that enrich near-weapons-grade uranium or the hundreds of pounds of material they have already produced, according to a wide range of nonproliferation and Iranian experts.
In launching the attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Iranian program poses an existential threat that Israel intends to destroy. “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” he said in an address to the nation early Friday.
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The question is, will the U.S. stay on the sidelines or get directly involved? There are conflicting reports:
Breaking it down: Israel lacks the huge bunker busters needed to destroy this facility and the strategic bombers to carry them. The U.S. has both within flying distance of Iran.
- An Israeli official claimed to Axios that the U.S. could still join the operation, and that President Trump even suggested he'd do so if necessary in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the days leading up to launch.
- But a White House official denied that, telling Axios Trump said exactly the opposite. The U.S. currently has no intention of getting directly involved, the official said.
Could Israel find a way to do it on its own, without a massive bunker-busting bomb and U.S. power? Possibly, but it would be a heavy lift indeed:
Yes, but: Some experts think Israel could try to replicate the effect of a massive bunker buster by repeatedly bombing the same location.
- A much riskier approach would be sending special forces to raid the facility.
- Israeli special forces conducted such a raid last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives. The entire operation took two hours.
This would be a great time for James Bond or Ethan Hunt to step in, but this is real life and not the movies, and the obstacles are daunting.
Tensions in the region show no signs of abating. RedState will keep you up-to-date on the latest developments.
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