Last night, Republicans decided they wanted a rematch of 2020, with Donald Trump securing right at half the vote in Iowa. Whether that's a smart play or not will be hashed out not on the internet, but at the ballot box come November. My only warning remains the same: The current calm before the storm is a mirage. When the onslaught comes, we better be ready.
SEE: Former President Donald Trump Wins Iowa Caucus
Trump doing what he was expected to do wasn't what struck me about the results in Iowa, though. Rather, it was Nikki Haley rounding out the top three with a sizable portion of the vote. Later in the evening, the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador proclaimed the race has now been narrowed to a "two-person" race, an odd proclamation indeed given her standing.
At that point, I was reminded of a post I made back in October.
Hubris, defined as excessive self-confidence and pride, perfectly describes the donors and political groups that lined up behind Haley. For months, poll after poll came out showing Haley as unpopular within the Republican Party compared to the other top candidates. Those same polls showed Ron DeSantis managing
In late December Gallup found Haley had a 44 percent favorable rating among Republicans while Morning Consult had her at just 42 percent. DeSantis was above 60 percent in both of those polls. What did that mean? It meant that DeSantis, however remote his chances following the indictments of Trump, was the only competitor with enough broad appeal to even have a chance at being competitive in a head-to-head contest.
The Never Trump, neoconservative contingent within the GOP didn't care, though. They were convinced that they could not only dethrone Trump but that they could do so without even having to compromise. DeSantis wasn't in their tribe. He didn't fold on the big issues. He didn't whisper sweet nothings in their ears when they waved cash in his face. He stuck to his guns, he fought the culture wars, he called Ukraine a territorial dispute, he said a man can't become a woman, and he told Disney to pound sand.
He was too impure for Never Trump because he didn't represent anything Never Trump stood for. So instead of being calculating and getting behind the best Trump alternative, they attacked him, called him a statist, and threw all their money behind the most unpopular major candidate in the race. In Haley, they saw their chance to go for the Bush-era gold. She was their vehicle to shift the party back to a pre-Trump footing while not having to reckon with their own shortcomings.
That, my friends, was hubris, and for it, they will now get Trump good and hard. To that, I say, "Well deserved."