If a stopped watch is right, twice a day, so The Hill is finally right with its usual boosterism of the Democrats.
Sherrod Brown, a three-term former Ohio U.S. Senator, who was ousted just last year, is now running again, and greatly improves the Democrats' chances. Although he was defeated as an incumbent, that was largely because of the Trump landslide, which left him somewhat politically unharmed. Prior to him announcing, the Democrats had no one to take on appointed Senator Jon Husted, who had been elected multiple times statewide, and is popular with all factions of the party. Now, they have a man who is universally known in the state, popular with the working-class voters who have swung to the Republicans, and will be able to raise huge amounts of money for the race. And unlike two years ago, Donald Trump will not be on the ballot to goose Republican turnout.
Still, it will not be an easy race for Brown. There have only been two former Senators who have come back to win Senate races after being defeated. There was Republican John Sherman Cooper of Kentucky, who won back a seat as his party became more competitive in the state – so he really doesn’t count – and Republican Slade Gorton of Washington. Gorton’s situation was directly analogous to Brown’s. Gorton was a long-time Republican politico in a Democrat-leaning state, who got elected to state attorney general three times, won a U.S. Senate seat, but then lost his re-election in 1986 when the Democrats stormed back to control the Senate. Then, just two years later, Gorton was nominated for the other (open) Senate seat and narrowly won in a more favorable year for Republicans.
The Democrats face a horrible map in 2026. There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs: 33 for six-year terms and two special elections for two-year terms. There are 22 Republican held seats, versus 13 Democrat held seats. However, most of the Republican seats are safe – only Susan Collins in Maine faces a Democrat leaning electorate, and North Carolina is in play – so it will be tough for the Democrats to oust the net 4 Republican Senators needed to gain the majority.
President Trump is currently sitting at 45.9 percent approval to 51.3 percent disapproval at the RCP average. (And this probably includes some anti-Trump biased polling.) This is basically unchanged from where it has been for a while, and there is still no indication that any sort of “blue wave” is building.
Now, let’s turn to specific news from the competitive races for the Senate:
Ossoff is very endangered, but he holds almost $15.5 million in his campaign, a huge amount of early money. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins have both launched campaigns, as well as football coach Derek Dooley, who is being backed by Gov. Brian Kemp. A TIPP Poll sees all three GOP candidates competitive with Ossoff, but shows Collins with an edge over the other two in the primary and as Ossoff’s top challenger. Carter has $4 million in the bank, Collins posts just over $1 million, and Mr. Dooley, who just recently became an official candidate, should be able to raise money. Overall, with a competitive and potentially brutal primary looming on the GOP side, Ossoff should have a narrow edge, despite his being rather left-leaning positions when it comes to important matters such as “trans rights” and Israel and foreign policy. The national environment will certainly matter in this race.
When Peters surprised both parties by retiring, 2024 Senate candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers immediately jumped in on the GOP side and was endorsed by Sen. Majority Leader Thune. Then the primary race ended before it began when he received the endorsement of President Trump. There are several candidates vying for the Democrat nomination, including Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens is in the moderate lane, while El-Sayed is a Bernie-bro, and McMorrow is in the middle. While all three Democrats are among the top fundraisers in the country, Stevens is winning the battle so far, with nearly $2 million in cash on hand, to El-Sayed’s $1.1 million and McMorrow’s $827,000. Rogers, meanwhile, has raised $745,000, and he has nearly $1.3 million in the bank. The polling (between Stevens and Rogers) shows a dead heat. Rogers probably needs a vicious Democrat primary – which does seem likely – and certainly no “blue wave” to become the first Republican to carry a Senate seat from Michigan since the GOP landslide of 1994. Especially with the Democrats being the “out party” in 2026.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper’s entrance into the race has given the Democrats a slight edge. He has been elected twice as governor and before that for four terms as the state attorney general. After Lara Trump bowed out, Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley announced he would run and got President Trump’s endorsement. It is unclear how good of candidate Whatley will be, as he has never stood for office before, but he will certainly be able to raise money. There have been three polls so far – Emerson shows Cooper up 47% to 41%, Harper shows a 47% to 39% Cooper edge, while a Victory Insights poll shows a tie. Overall, this is good for the largely unknown Whatley. Cooper’s edge comes from the normal GOP advantage in federal races being counterbalanced by his political strength in the state and the fact that the Democrats should have a slight edge nationally as the “out party.”
The special election is set, with former Senator Sherrod Brown trying to win back a seat in the U.S. Senate. Appointed Ohio Senator Jon Husted is probably the strongest candidate the Republicans could have – he has around $2.7 million in the bank – and is actually a tougher candidate than was Bernie Moreno, who beat Brown in 2024. Brown is a strong candidate, but he is probably going to need something else, either a “blue wave” or a major Husted mistake to win this time around.
Cornyn is being challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton has a solid lead over Cornyn, which is never a good sign for an incumbent. However, Cornyn does better in the general election. Paxton is considered more MAGA, but it is unclear that President Trump would support him over Cornyn. In fact, Trump might end up endorsing Cornyn if he fears Paxton could lose the seat. Paxton has a corruption scandal hanging over his head and rumored infidelity surrounding his pending divorce. The GOP leadership are firmly behind Cornyn. The Democrats have a strong second-tier candidate here – former two-term Congressman and NFL player, Colin Allred. However, in the last election, Trump and Sen. Cruz won more solidly than they did before, as many Hispanic areas went more Republican. Basically, Allred is just hoping that a bitter battle in the GOP leads to a weakened Paxton as the nominee, combined with a “blue wave,” and/or a rebounding of the Hispanic vote, and he (Allred) can take advantage. So far, this is still a stretch.
All in all, there is no question that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has had a good run recently, having enticed some potentially strong Democrat candidates into Senate campaigns. And he is still trying; he is trying to entice former Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race. But the Democrats still start with a really bad hand, and they probably need that “blue wave” and/or some major GOP mistakes to win the Senate back in 2026.
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