There are three prominent elections that political observers are focusing on this year – New Jersey Governor, New York Mayor, and Virginia Governor. The conventional wisdom holds that all three are expected to vote Democrat — which would mean that Virginia would be a partisan flip.  

There are also legislative and local elections in these areas. The Democrats are expected to hold onto their majorities.

Here is my latest update for each of these major races:

In New Jersey, the Democrat nominee for governor is Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, and the Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli. Although the CW claims that this should be an easy win for the Democrats, I have cast some doubt on what I believe is just partisan propaganda. For one thing, Donald Trump cut his margin in New Jersey from a 16-point loss in 2020 to a 6-point loss in 2024, a 10-point swing towards Republicans. For another, in New Jersey, it is very hard for one party to win three straight terms for governor. The last time this happened was in 1961, when Democrat Richard Hughes won in a 50.3%-48.7% upset over Republican James Mitchell, a former U.S. Secretary of Labor. Mitchell may have lost because: 

The Mitchell campaign suffered a severe setback in September when the candidate broke his leg and took him off the campaign trail for several weeks to recuperate following surgery; He completed the campaign on crutches.  In the days before television commercials and social media, retail campaigning had an outsized impact on election.

This normal tide against the majority party usually happens because, in governors’ races, after a certain number of years, the majority party begins to “own” the state’s problems. We may be seeing that again in New Jersey, when it comes to electric bills, which have tripled this summer, and to the increasing price of health and car insurance. And, with the never-ending rise in taxes. According to one poll, Ciattarelli holds a commanding lead with the public on which candidate is most likely to lower taxes. (Duh.)  

Recent New Jersey polling all show the Democrat ahead. A StimSight Research poll shows Sherril up, 48%-42%, among probable voters. A Fairleigh Dickinson University has Sherrill leading 45%-37% among likely voters. And an A2 Insights poll has Sherrill up 51% to 45% among likely voters.  

The campaign funding is pretty much even:

The New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission distributes matching funds to qualifying candidates under a program started in 1974... It appears to be a close race, at least in terms of fundraising: Commission members reported for July that Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli received a total of $2,952,879, slightly more than Democratic nominee and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-New Jersey, who received a total of $2,937,994.

It is important to realize that the Democrats are worried about this race, because the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced an initial $1.5 million investment in the race, which is one of the largest and earliest investments it has made to New Jersey Democrats during an off-year election cycle.

In New York, contrary to my earliest prediction, radical Islamist and socialist Zohran Mamdani won a huge upset in the Democrat primary over the favored former New York governor, Andrew Cuomo. This upset occurred because of the incompetence of Cuomo, and some shady shenanigans by local government organs, socialist and leftist non-profits, and Islamist groups.

The current CW is that Mamdani is now a shoo-in over Cuomo, who is running as an independent, over current Mayor Eric Adams, running as another independent, over Republican Curtis Sliwa, and over another independent. This CW seems to come from an overemphasis on a Zenith poll showing Mamdani at 50%, which is far above the 22% for Cuomo, the 13% for Sliwa, and the 7% for Adams. It also shows that Mamdani is leading with the Jewish vote (the NYT’s further tries to add to this ridiculous argument). This Zenith poll is supposedly “independent” but actually comes from a Mamdani campaign adviser and a suspect left-wing pollster.

The other recent polling shows a more competitive race, with Mamdani ranging in support from a low of 26% to a high of 41%. Furthermore, this list includes a Data for Progress poll, which itself is left-wing and always suspect.

There is no question that Mamdani still has an edge in the race, in a city where the Democrats dominate. However, what is interesting is that his biggest edge is probably because we have a version of the prisoner’s dilemma occurring. The prisoner's dilemma is a paradox in decision analysis where individuals acting in their own self-interest do not produce the optimal outcome. Here, Independents Cuomo and Adams, and Republican Sliwa, are all staying in the race, because they know that they each have an excellent chance of maximizing their percentages against such a radical Islamist and socialist. Both Adams and Cuomo can even make the argument that each could win the race if the other candidates dropped out. But, because all of them refuse to drop out, this makes it much more likely that Mamdani will win.  

Mamdani may have a money edge as well; however, it is unclear how the third-party groups are going to shake out in the general. 

In Virginia, the Commonwealth will get its first female governor, either Democrat former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger or GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger is heavily favored to win this race, according to the CW. Unfortunately, I must concur.

The RCP average shows Spanberger with an advantage at 46% to Earle-Sears at 38.5%, with Spanberger leading in every single poll. Spanberger also has the edge in fundraising – Spanberger has raised more than $27 million so far, with more than $15 million on hand, while Earle-Sears has raised more than $11 million and has almost $5 million cash on hand.

With the prior history of Virginia showing that the incumbent president’s party (almost) always loses the off-off year elections for governor – except in 2013 when the Democrats heavily outspent the GOP and gamed the race by propping up a conservative leaning independent – and with Northern Virginia being one of the few areas of the country where the DOGE reductions of the federal workforce have really hurt, Earle-Sears is still floundering in her campaign (and the MSM is doing its best to promote GOP doom and gloom). To win, Earle-Sears presumably really needs to find a good wedge issue. She has tried an “axe the tax” proposal; but Spanberger has refused to cede the issue to her.  

Time is running out. Unless Earle-Sears can seize a salient issue, she may continue to be “up the creek without a paddle.”

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