President Trump has said he wants the GOP to win another 100 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. This has rarely happened before — “(o)nly twice has one party picked up 100 plus seats – in 1894, when the out-party GOP won because of the Panic of 1893, and in 1932, when the out-party Democrats won because of the Great Depression.”
One other thing of note about both elections is that each occurred during the process of a political realignment.
And there is little question today that since the 2016 election, the U.S. has been going through another political realignment. A political realignment occurs when there is a fundamental transformation within a nation’s political landscape, usually over several elections, which signifies a profound and enduring shift in voter allegiances, party systems, and the dominant issues shaping political discourse. The idea of realignments was first explored by prominent political scientists V.O. Key Jr. and Walter Dean Burnham.
Generally, it is thought that realignments occur every thirty-plus years, as the voting population slowly changes, with older voters dying off and being replaced with new voters.
The 2016 - 2024 political realignment has resulted in major changes in the partisan support of particular groups or classes of voters. Blue-collar whites, Hispanic and black males, Asians, and Jewish voters all moved towards Donald Trump and the Republicans, while college-educated whites largely shifted towards the Democrats. Because of this, the most dependable voters on election day are now the Democrats, rather than Republicans, which is a major reversal from the history of the past century. Also, new issues have become important to the voting public; for example, the issues of combating illegal immigration and the “trans issue.”
At this point, this political realignment – let’s call it the Trump Realignment – has been acknowledged by leftwing MSM organs, conservative media, and other MSM sources alike.
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So, is it possible that the Trump Realignment could allow the GOP to win bigly in the 2026 House elections?
A lot depends on what type of realignment the Trump Realignment is. As you can see below, not every realignment is exactly alike.
Since the Republican Party first emerged, there have been the following political realignments:
The Trump 2024 reelection had Trump winning the popular vote for the presidency and carrying the Electoral College. The GOP also narrowly held the House but took firm control over the Senate. These results may indicate the normal parameters of the new realignment; but they may not. The Trump Realignment certainly could follow in the footsteps of the McKinley Realignment, where the GOP just kept building its strength (minus the two exceptions).
If that is the case, then a big GOP gain in the House – and the Senate – may be possible in 2026. But right now, there are no indications that it is going to happen, and I continue to find it rather unlikely.
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