Russian aircraft carried out two provocative operations on Friday over the Baltic Sea. The two incidents, separated by only a few hours, have resulted in increased readiness of NATO fighters in the area and in Estonia requesting emergency consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The first incident involved three Russian MiG-31 fighters, which entered Estonian airspace around 10 a.m. local time. The MiG-31 is a fourth-generation fighter reputed, at least by the Russians, to be the fastest fighter in the world. It can carry the nuclear-capable Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile. The flight approached from over the Gulf of Finland and was intercepted by Finnish Air Force fighters near Vaindloo Island, about 124 miles from Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. The Russians lingered in the area for approximately 12 minutes before the arrival of Italian F-35s under NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission, with support from Finnish and Swedish jets.
"This is unprecedentedly brazen," Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna declared, summoning Russia's charge d'affaires in protest. "Russia has violated our airspace four times this year alone, but sending three fighters this deep is a direct challenge to our sovereignty." Estonia's government invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty Saturday, triggering urgent consultations among the 32 members on bolstering defenses. Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized the need for "rapid political and economic pressure" on Moscow. This is the Estonian Prime Minister:
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart labeled the breach "reckless," confirming alliance jets "responded immediately."
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian premier, called it an "extremely dangerous provocation."
Moscow denied that anything of the sort happened. According to TASS, Russia's Defense Ministry insisted the MiG-31s were on a "scheduled flight" from Karelia to Kaliningrad, Russia's Baltic exclave, over "neutral waters" more than three kilometers from Vaindloo. "The aircraft did not deviate from the agreed path and complied with international rules.”
Just hours later, the Polish Border Guard revealed two unidentified Russian fighter jets executed a low-altitude "buzz" over the Petrobaltic oil and gas platform. The flyover breached the installation's protected safety zone in Warsaw's exclusive economic zone, prompting alerts to the armed forces and maritime authorities.
These two incidents come days after some 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus despite Russia saying they strayed from an attack on western Ukraine. This also caused Poland to ask for Article 4 consultations.
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Despite President Trump writing off the massive incursion of Polish airspace by Russian drones as a mistake (Is Trump Pulling the Plug on His Role in Ending the Russia-Ukraine War? – RedState), it is obvious to even the most casual observer that this sequence of events is anything but a mistake.
The drones sent into Poland were sent by the route an air attack against Poland would follow. They were mostly decoy drones, and the exercise was calculated to map Polish air defense radar systems, test their ranges, and test the reaction time of the Polish Air Force. Friday's expedition had the same objectives. The MiGs were equipped to be non-threatening so as not to escalate the interception into a dogfight.
Plus, the Russians sent in one of their most radar-visible aircraft.
Again, they were mapping air defense radar coverage of the Gulf of Finland and the eastern Baltic and testing NATO reaction and reaction times.
This was also a political move to further isolate Europe, as President Trump sends repeated signals that the Europeans had better learn to fend for themselves.
Not only were the Russians out to rattle cages in Tallinn, they were sending a message to the Finns.
As I've pointed out on multiple occasions, people who are putting a benign gloss on Putin's activities because "he wouldn't invade Western Europe" are simply dumb or Russian stooges. Russia pioneered the use of hybrid war in Ukraine in 2014, eventually injecting Russian Army regulars into what had been a civil war. I think all three Baltic States, particularly Latvia, are vulnerable to a Russian military intervention in the guise of local "resistance" forces to defend a sizeable and totally uninterested in assimilation Russian population from "oppression." This would be a casus belli very similar to Russia's "defense" of Russian speakers in Donbas; see How Putin Dismembers NATO Without Firing A Shot. A Scenario From the Cold War.
Because Putin hasn't received any reaction beyond mean words, he is continuing the path of escalation.
Perhaps the launching of drones into Romanian and Polish airspace and the two incidents from Friday will finally push Europe to fully focus on what is an existential crisis for the EU and for NATO: Russian adventurism and expansionism.
A new round of sanctions seems sure to be imposed on Russia in the very near future; EU hammers Putin and charms Trump by targeting China, India in new Russia sanctions.
There is also the possibility that Russian aircraft in NATO airspace may be met with deadly force.
In 2015, Turkey reacted to a Russian violation of its airspace by shooting down a Russian strike fighter.
Lithuania's Defense Minister left no doubt that the Turkish incident was involved in NATO's Article 4 consultations.
It is crunch time for the EU and for NATO. The next Russian incursion needs to be met with overwhelming force, or they might as well fold their tent and slink away to Siberia.
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