[This is a continuation of my "Political Lessons From President George W. Bush" series, in which I discuss some political lessons Republicans could learn from the second term of President George W. Bush. Briefly, I believe that it is important for a Republican president to avoid the second-term political collapse that happened to President Bush and that, to do so, a Republican president, e.g., Donald Trump, needs to follow a bifurcated strategy to keep his polling support up among both the GOP party base and with independents. You can read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3, here and here and here, respectively.] 

Now, let’s look at the true independents, who make up about 6 percent of the voting public. In the 2024 election, independents – both true independents and independents who were party leaners – voted 48 to 42 percent for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, a big drop from the 15-point margin Joe Biden had won them by in 2020. (There is no data for true independents alone.)   

As I explained during the 2024 election, these true independents didn’t much care for Donald Trump as a person – they didn’t like his “mean tweets” – but they also had a major problem with Joe Biden’s presidential record, which they felt (correctly) was far worse than Trump’s first term record. Thus, they were susceptible to the Trump campaign’s strategy, which focused on excoriating Biden-Harris for the poor economy and for the chaos caused by the open border and the Biden-Harris administration’s – and other Democrats' – unwillingness to enforce the criminal laws. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign, apparently hemmed in by Joe Biden’s demand that she not separate herself from the Biden record, just regurgitated the “Trump is the devil” campaign that independents had heard nonstop since 2015 and had already shown a resistance to.

Based on this, I believe Donald Trump should push to maximize his support among true independents by prioritizing a good economy and a reduction in the chaos.  

Right now, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average Trump job approval has gone down, sitting at 47.9  percent approval to 48.8 percent disapproval. Once again, I – and others – find it suspicious that some polls on the average – Reuters, NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN, Atlas, and Marist – have Trump down by a considerable amount, while others – Rasmussen, RMG, Emerson, Trafalgar, CBS, TIPP, and Harris – have him up, sometimes substantially. The latter polls were shown to be more accurate in the last cycle, except for Atlas, which was the most accurate. Nevertheless, I still recommend going with the average here since that is what most of the MSM will go with and because we can never be sure which poll will maintain its accuracy – see the sad tale of Zogby polling, which was initially praised for its accuracy in the late 90’s and is now largely ignored.  

Based on this number, Donald Trump is far from being in the polling zone of danger.  

And this is the average that is the important number. Lots of political observers will also focus on the specific issue numbers for the Trump administration.  Especially his approval for “managing the economy.” But I don’t see the need; in the Bush years, general approval was what led the newscasts, and the rest of the approvals were just an afterthought.

But, to continue from my earlier column, let’s break things down on the different fronts that the Trump administration has been active on. (NOTE: This evaluation of the issues focuses solely on their political importance and not an evaluation of their merits.) The more prominent issue areas include:

Of course, President Trump has one major advantage that President Bush did not have in the aughts. In 2025, the Democrat Party seems to be cratering in its approval number…

To be concluded in part V.