Last week, the White House hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to sign a peace accord. The agreement, brokered by the Trump administration, ends more than three decades of fighting between the two countries, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This historic development comes at a time when the war in Ukraine rages on and the leaders of both Caucasian countries have distanced themselves from Putin.
The peace plan includes Trump's Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transit corridor that will connect Azerbaijan to its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave. The U.S. will have exclusive development rights to TRIPP for 99 years. This corridor will be strategically located above the Middle East, close to the Iranian border—at the crossroads between the East and the West.
President Trump also signed bilateral agreements with Baku and Yerevan, aiming to boost cooperation in a number of areas—trade, transit, infrastructure, AI, and counter-terrorism and security.
The most obvious losers from the peace deal are Russia and Iran. Both countries have a diminished influence in the South Caucasus, one due to the war in Ukraine and the other having been severely weakened by Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Rising Lion. But there is another enemy—a more capable one—whose regional plans are diminished by this breakthrough: China.
Beijing has been attempting to position itself as a global peacemaker, despite its flagrant international transgressions. Taking note of the opportunity the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would provide the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to advance this ambition, the Trump administration moved in and closed out Chinese influence from the rapprochement process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
China has gained a considerable foothold in the South Caucasus via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other forms of engagement.
China is Azerbaijan’s fourth-largest trading partner, with trade between Baku and Beijing increasing in 2024. Azerbaijan serves as a cornerstone of BRI projects that link China to Europe. For example, the CCP has increased its involvement in developing the Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route—a network of rail, road, and maritime routes that passes through Azerbaijan—after a statement by Xi in 2023 calling for greater Chinese engagement in the project.
Azerbaijan is a dialogue partner in the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and applied for BRICS membership last year. Earlier this year, Azerbaijan signed a Joint Statement on Establishment of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China, agreeing to strengthen diplomatic ties and economic cooperation, which includes aligning the BRI with Baku’s development projects.
Compared to Azerbaijan, China’s influence in Armenia is modest, with no major BRI infrastructure projects in the country. From 2009 until 2022, China was Yerevan’s second-largest trading partner, being pushed to third place by the UAE in 2023. Yerevan has, however, signaled intentions to strengthen its relationship with China and submitted an application to join the SCO.
TRIPP—a major multi-country infrastructure project—and the other bilateral agreements act as a counterweight to China’s influence in the region. This comes at a critical time when Azerbaijan and Armenia have begun shoring up their relations with Beijing. President Trump has driven a wedge between these Caucasian countries and China, increasing the U.S.’s footprint in the region.
Aside from ensuring Yerevan’s and Baku’s compliance with the conditions outlined in the peace deal, it will fall on the Trump administration’s shoulders to continue countering any efforts by Beijing to draw either country further into its orbit while also maintaining steady pressure on Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s leadership to choose Washington over Beijing.
Nevertheless, President Trump has forged a strong personal connection with President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan. Baku and Yerevan have expressed their gratitude for President Trump’s mediation and bilateral agreements, even recommending President Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize—an idea echoed by other leaders. Beijing will have a hard time competing with this.
The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal is another example of the Trump administration’s comprehensive international approach to countering China that extends beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The China that Washington finds itself at odds with today is radically different from the China of decades ago. Today’s Beijing is one that has expanded into all parts of the world, aiming to supplant American influence wherever possible.
To confront this reality, the Trump administration is extending America’s presence into strategic regions where it has historically had little or no influence.
Indeed, a true pivot to Asia—not Obama’s purely nominal pivot to Asia—is needed now more than ever. The Trump administration has demonstrated a much stronger commitment to countering China and focusing on the Asia-Pacific than any previous administration, though some shortcomings exist.
The recent decision by the U.S. Navy to conduct a freedom of navigation operation around the Scarborough Shoal after the collision of two Chinese military vessels during an aggressive, high-speed chase of a Philippine ship demonstrates this commitment to the region.
But given the threat of China’s far-reaching expansionist objectives, a pivot to Asia strategy must be paired with attention to regions outside of the Asia-Pacific.
The Trump administration is actively working to isolate China internationally. We can walk and chew gum at the same time. We need to.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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