In my prior column, I discussed some political lessons Republicans could learn from the second term of President George W. Bush. I wrote that for governing reasons, it was important for a Republican president to avoid the second-term political collapse that happened to President Bush and that, to do so, a Republican president, e.g., Donald Trump, needed to follow a bifurcated strategy to keep his polling support up among both the GOP party base and with independents. 

Regarding the GOP base, I advised that a Republican president needs to avoid violating the following crucial electoral maxims:

1. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Abandon the Party Base on Important Issues;
2. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Surrender on the Political Battlefield;
3. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Fall for the Sweet Nothings of the MSM and the Democrat Establishment; and
4. A Second Term Republican President Should Also Beware the (Similar) Sweet Nothings of the GOP Establishment and more liberal Republicans.

Now, it has been less than a month since President Trump’s second term began, but let’s see how things are going (while understanding that any evaluations we make are still incredibly early). 

At RealClearPolitics, President Trump has an average net approval score of 49 percent to 48 percent. We know, based on the election results from 2024, 2020, and 2016, that Trump’s polling is almost certainly underestimated by around two percent. Thus, he is definitely in positive territory and presumably still has majority support with the registered voting public. 

Trump’s mission is to avoid dropping into the low 40’s, and staying there consistently, or even falling into the 30’s, as happened to Bush.

Abandoning the GOP Base on a Prominent Issue 

A Republican president should never abandon a prominent issue important to a significant portion of his political base. Mind you, this doesn’t have to be a majority of the GOP base; losing support among a significant minority is also dangerous.

So far, Trump and his administration have been active on many different fronts. (NOTE: This evaluation of the issues focuses solely on their political importance, and not an evaluation of their merits.) The more prominent issue areas include:

To be continued in part III.