With a little over a week to go, there is one major federal issue I have not recently wargamed: The United States Senate. The Senate is vital to the implementation of any presidential agenda; not only does this upper house have an up-or-down on all legislation, but they are also responsible for the "advise and consent" function for executive branch officials and, perhaps most important of all, federal judges - including Supreme Court justices.
If Donald Trump and JD Vance win this election, which is looking increasingly likely, they'll need a friendly Congress. So, let's take a look at some key Senate races and how the balance of the Senate is liable to turn out. My friend and colleague Jennifer Oliver O'Connell took a look at the Senate races a couple of weeks ago as well:
See Related: GOP Only Needs to Flip Two Senate Seats to Win the Majority, but Polling Shows They Could Take Five
Let's look at how things stand now, nine days before the election. The RealClearPolitics average compilation of the Senate has the GOP already holding a two-seat lead, 51-49, assuming current polling holds. The toss-up states are Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Here's what that ends up looking like.
This gives the GOP a non-filibuster-proof majority of 52-48. Workable, but more would be better.
See Related: Montana Senate Campaign Worker Fired for Tampering With Ballot Box
'Remarkable' News for Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Senate Race
Republican Optimism Soars in Nevada As Early Voting Trends Favor Trump and Sam Brown
Much will depend on turnout, which so far is looking pretty good, and on Donald Trump's coattails. If his coattails are as long and broad as we hope, that could easily drag Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin over, which would give the Republicans a 55-seat Senate majority - much more comfortable.
Hang in there, folks. In nine days, we'll have a pretty good idea. And don't overlook the chance to sign up for a VIP account; a Gold-level account gets you access to all of our sister sites in Townhall Media: PJ Media, Twitchy, Hot Air, Bearing Arms, and Townhall.com, and the new Platinum-level gets you access to all of that plus access to a catalog of feature-length films, and a credit to the new Townhall store. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for a 50% discount.