A new CBS/YouGov poll released Wednesday has former President Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by two points. The poll of 1,441 registered voters shows Trump with a 51 percent to 49 percent lead.
This is the latest in a string of polls showing Trump leading by between one and four points in Georgia; see here and here. The CBS/YouGov poll called the 2020 race in Georgia on the money.
The entire poll is at the bottom of the post, but I think there are some interesting items that need highlighting.
I think this poll undercounts Trump's strength in Georgia. The topline split is two points, but when you dig deeper, that doesn't seem plausible.
Poll crosstabs show that Trump leads men by 13 points (56 percent to 43 percent) and Harris leads women by seven points (53 percent to 46 percent). If the male-female crosstabs are accurate, I don't think you can get to a two-point lead. I've posted on Harris's problem with male voters not named Willie Brown; see Tim Walz's Manly Essence Isn't Helping Kamala Win Male Voters. The inability of the Harris-Walz ticket to appeal to male voters will be the big story if Trump wins this election.
The poll hit some political issue peculiar to Georgia as well as those with national attention.
In short, Trump is winning on every major issue, voters are unhappy with their situation, and everyone is looking forward to voting. As I noted, I don't think you can go through the crosstabs and conclude that Trump is only ahead by two points. If this poll is close to accurate, it is game over in Georgia for Harris-Walz.