We've all had our attention focused on Los Angeles, and that's appropriate; what's going on there right now is worrisome. An open rebellion in one of our major cities, gangs of thugs and punks rioting in defiance of civil authority, is something we're all concerned with.
In the rest of the world, though, a lot of the same old games are being played. Case in point: The United States Navy and 15 NATO allies, comprising 40 ships, 25 aircraft, and approximately 9,000 personnel, are taking part in Baltic Operations 2025 (BALTOPS25). This exercise in Russia's backyard is an old Cold War leftover and takes place in an interesting and strategic location. Nine nations have a Baltic coastline, and Russia, which has a very narrow front on the Baltic, including the port of St. Petersburg, is the only non-NATO member that has such a coastline.
BALTOPS is more than a training exercise. It's also a symbolic thumb of the nose at Tsar Vladimir I.
NATO navies are putting on a display of maritime might in the Baltic Sea this month, as thousands of personnel from 17 countries aboard 50 vessels take part in war games led by the U.S. Navy's 6th Fleet.
Of the nine countries that share a Baltic Sea coastline, only Russia is not a NATO member, and June's BALTOPS exercise aims to ensure those other countries can work together to defend the area, at a time when Moscow is turning up the heat.
"This year’s BALTOPS is more than just an exercise," said U.S. Vice Admiral J.T. Anderson in a press release this week. "It’s a visible demonstration of our Alliance’s resolve, adaptability and maritime strength."
So the question is this: How will Russia respond?
This is a personal opinion and worth every penny you paid for it, but I don't think Russia will do anything directly. The nations of the eastern Baltic, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, all share land borders with Russia. But while Russia has its port at St. Petersburg, there is a significant bottleneck in getting from the port to the Gulf of Finland, and an even tighter spot between Sweden and Denmark to break out into the North Sea and the greater Atlantic. Were I Russia and looking to play some navy games, I'd want to find a less constricted spot. When it comes to the Baltic, it's a NATO pond, and Tsar Vladimir I knows it.
Besides, Russia has other things on its mind right now.
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Of course, that doesn't mean that Russia hasn't been up to some more clandestine shenanigans in that NATO pond.
Over the last year there's been growing disquiet about Russia's malign influence in the Baltic Sea region, with several incidents of severed undersea cables. Suspicion has fallen on Russia's fleet of so-called "ghost" or "shadow" ships: hundreds of aging vessels, mostly oil tankers flying under foreign flags that are used to circumvent Western sanctions or trade in military hardware.
Those clandestine efforts include damaging undersea cables, pipelines, and so forth. Ships of Russia's "Ghost Fleet" have been accused of deliberately damaging undersea infrastructure; crew members from one such ship, registered in the Cook Islands, are presently facing charges in Finland for damaging an undersea communications cable by dragging the ship's anchor for some 60 miles. So, yes, Russia is playing; they won't come out with a fleet and play directly, not in the Baltic, but they're playing.
These are old Cold War games, sure, but those games can always turn hot; that was true then, and it's true now. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
You can see the U.S. Navy press release about BALTOPS25 here.
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