Has Princess Lisa Murkowski finally slipped up? Is her nefarious coalition of Anchorage and Juneau Democrats and squishy Republicans finally starting to come apart? Some recent poll numbers are in, on the eve of her possible decision to run for governor, and they aren't looking good.

So what's the issue that may finally sink Princess Lisa? The One Big Beautiful Bill.

US Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s standing with Alaska voters has taken a serious hit, according to a new poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research from July 29 to August 1.

As she toys with the idea of running for governor, the poll shows a dramatic downturn in her favorability ratings, especially among moderate and progressive voters, once key components of her support base.

This is correct; there are some moderates and even "progressives" in Alaska, largely (but not completely) around the Anchorage and Juneau municipalities. And they have long been a part of the coalition that keeps sending Princess Lisa back to Washington. But that's the support she's now losing; her ratings among conservatives are and have been upside-down.

Murkowski’s overall favorable rating now stands at 33%, down 13 percentage points from April. Her unfavorable rating has risen to 60%, up 15 points over the same period. This marks a net favorability swing of negative 28 points, a steep decline in just four months.

Breakdown by Political Affiliation

• Moderates: Murkowski’s net favorability among moderate voters dropped from +28 in April to +2, a 26-point fall.
• Progressives: The decline was even more pronounced among progressives, where her net favorability plummeted from +54 to -21, a 75-point drop.
• Conservatives: Her ratings among conservatives remain largely unchanged at -64, reflecting a long-standing dissatisfaction.

Progressives aren't an enormous constituency in Alaska, but they're there, and the more politically savvy among them have, historically, known the difficulties of getting a Democrat elected to the Senate from the Great Land, and a lot of them have seen Princess Lisa as the next best thing, not entirely without reason. But Princess Lisa's misstep this time seems to have been her vote in favor of the OBBB, despite her having wrangled some concessions for Alaska education funding and the bill's provisions for Alaska energy development. 

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Must Read Alaska's Suzanne Downing, as is so often the case, has a pretty good bead on this:

The erosion of support from progressives and moderates raises questions about Murkowski’s political future. Once seen as a centrist who could navigate Alaska’s unique political terrain, she now finds herself isolated from both the left and the right. At age 68, she has two years left in her Senate term. She will be 70 during her next campaign for Senate, but if she decides to run for governor, she’d be 70 during her first year of office. Either way, it’s a big decision.

Much of the recent liberal discontent may stem from Murkowski’s support of the Big Beautiful Bill, a federal package she voted for earlier this summer. While the bill included major infrastructure investments and energy provisions favorable to Alaska, it has drawn sharp criticism from her leftist base voters for what they view as concessions to industry and compromises on climate and social safety net funding.

The big question will be this: If Princess Lisa seeks another Senate term, who from the GOP will run against her?

If we can ditch ranked-choice voting (RCV) in the 2026 cycle, and return to Alaska's traditional closed primaries, someone may successfully primary her - but that's happened before. If we still have to deal with RCV, then all bets are off. 

Here's the thing: While this polling is satisfying to conservatives in Alaska, we shouldn't get too happy about it just yet. Too many people on the "progressive" left have the attention span of a blue-bottle fly, and will have forgotten the OBBB vote by the time Princess Lisa is up for election - be it to the Senate or the governor's chair. And we should never bet against Princess Lisa's political survival skills. So, yes, this is a good indicator, but Alaska still won't find it easy to retire Princess Lisa for good.

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