Speaker Johnson seems to be very optimistic these days, saying the GOP will “defy history when we grow the majority in the House” in 2026.
The Speaker is clearly referencing the announcement of the new Texas GOP redistricting plan for the U.S. House seats in Texas, which was announced recently and could change a 25 Republican to 13 Democrat House delegation edge to a 30 Republican to 8 Democrat edge. This would be a net gain of 5 seats, if the five new seats that are all pro-Trump by double digits vote Republican. But a lot depends on whether the Hispanic voters in those districts continue their electoral march towards the GOP.
This is not the only redistricting plan that Johnson may be relying on. We are also waiting on the Ohio GOP to redistrict, which may net 2 or 3 more seats. It is also possible that Republicans will redistrict in Indiana, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire and Florida. Only in Florida could the GOP pick up more than one seat, although it is unlikely to be as big as the possible shift in Texas, as the Republicans currently have a 20 to 8 edge in the Florida delegation.
Democrats, of course, are squawking in fake partisan outrage about the gerrymandering, but, in Texas, the new districts are actually more compact and geographically logical than the old districts were, and the new map includes more Hispanic majority districts as well. Further, the Democrats themselves have instituted ridiculous gerrymanders in California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Oregon, New Mexico, and Nevada, sometimes by serendipitous means, so it is hard to take their objections seriously.
While Democrats have vowed to respond in their own states, that seems unlikely to accomplish much, with only Maryland’s one GOP district in any real danger.
Anyway, this clearly shows that the GOP is taking a page from the GOP experience in 2002, one time in recent years when the majority party bucked the mid-term curse, by making redistricting a crucial part of the Trump campaign team's plan to hold the U.S. House.
The entire Trump plan now seems to be:
Push GOP redistricting – see above;
Minimize retirements – the Trump team has “steered Republican candidates in House races in Iowa, Michigan and New York” from running for other offices and thus opening up their potentially vulnerable districts;
Spend big – the GOP continues to spend large amounts of money to protect its majority, although not quite as much as the Democrats. It is unclear how much the affiliated outside groups are spending, though;
Take primary challengers off the table – by endorsing members for their House seats early, Trump is making it hard for another Republican to challenge the incumbent;
Raise gobs more money – the GOP has outraised the Democrats at both the relevant national committees;
Ramp up recruiting;
Push certain issues – taking a page from 1998, the only other recent time the majority party bucked the mid-term curse, the GOP plans to attack House Democrats on impeachment (I am glad I suggested that ????). Considering the great hatred emanating from Democrats regarding Trump, it seems likely that many individual Democrat candidates will come out for another impeachment, even though the Senate will never remove the President.
Outside factors also seem to be playing into Speaker Johnson’s optimism.
Keep in mind that the GOP needs only to limit their losses to two seats in the House to retain control of that chamber (Any additional seats are simply gravy). If the Republicans do pick up a sizable number of seats in redistricting, and there is no recession, considering that the GOP is not in a bad place in the boom-and-bust cycle of the House, this is very doable.